Light a Match - Blow the Joint

Light a match. Blow the joint.

You know the scene in Goodfellas. The mob had taken over a restaurant and milked it for all it was worth before setting it on fire to collect the insurance. That's where we're at with this Phillies team, it has been milked for all it's worth with the collection of aging superstars that are still capable of production but not actually winning anything significant.

I've basically lived and breathed Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for 10 years now so this is not an easy thing to come to grips with, but this article from CrashburnAlley.com really set me off. The article tells us that the Phillies aging players (Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, and Marlon Byrd), all 34 or older, are playing anywhere from average to well above average offensive baseball.  Where's the hope for the future if the Phillies can't win when the old guys we count on the most are actually coming through? Despite Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins being off to near career type years, the Phillies are still four games under .500 and in last place in the NL East.

Their record is a bit deceiving though considering their run differential. They have been outscored by 34 runs on the season which is bad enough for 3rd worst in the MLB. This basically means they have a good record in 1 run ball games but get blown out quite a bit.

The supporting cast of younger guys are just not what they need to be. Dom Brown has been laughable, Larry Andersen insists Brown's bat is made of balsa wood this year. Cody Asche has shown some ability but he made three errors in an 8 batter stretch on Tuesday night. The bench, admittedly still without Darin Ruf, is woeful. Of the non-every day players not named Wil Nieves, Tony Gwynn leads the bunch with a .185 batting average.*

To take a page from Rick Pitino: Jayson Werth is not walking through that door. Shane Victorino is not walking through that door. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and pre-steroid bust Antonio Bastardo are not going to walk through that door. For years Utley, Howard, and Rollins were the faces and the carriers of this franchise, but they always had a ton of help that can't be overlooked.

Guys like Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez had 30 homer seasons and helped the Phillies make the playoffs during their sustained success. Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino not only hit with power and consistency but they both played All-Star caliber defense with rockets for arms. You don't make the playoffs with your left fielder and center fielder combining for one home run and five doubles through 40 games. You don't make the playoffs when your in-his-physical-prime-left-fielder gets referred to as being on crutches by Keith Hernandez while attempting to field a ball in the corner. You don't make the playoffs when every player in the league can take an extra base on your center fielder's arm.

We don't even need to go over the bullpen.

So the Phillies are clinging to hope with a team that does not provide a ton of it to be honest. There's plenty of blame to go around but the fact that the Phillies haven't brought up one productive major league player** through their farm system in 5 plus years, save a two week stretch from Dom Brown, is a glaring factor. The Phillies currently have three players in the MLB.com list of 100 top prospects. Most of you have heard of number 23 on that list, Maikel Franco, as well as Jesse Biddle and there's hope that those two can contribute to the Phillies in the coming years. But why hasn't any other talent emerged? Unless you're the Yankees, most teams have to build teams from the ground up and that's what the Phillies need to do, again.

The Phillies have to start right now and they should not stop until every trade option has been analyzed and made for the benefit of the ball club going past this year. Here's Chase Utley's current stats and NL rank:

Avg: 343 - 2nd
2B: 17 - 1st
3B: 3 - 2nd
OB: 401 - 8th
Slg: 571 - 5th
WAR: 1.9 - 7th

It's nice to see Chase Utley back to being the best second baseman on the planet. Last year Rube signed him to a two year $28 million extension and that kind of production has to be attractive to any team looking to make a push. As it stands, Utley is by far the Phillies' most attractive position player and he should be able to garner a few prospects in return for his services. You could sell high right now.

Let's see.. who else might be of use to major league ball clubs and could net the Phillies some much needed talented youth? You guessed it - Cliff Lee. Clifton Phifer is in the 4th year of a 5 year deal and will make $25 million next year with a little more than half that remaining this year. That price tag probably limits the Phillies to teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers, and Rangers. Anaheim has some money too. All of those teams, and any team really, could use the services of Lee and you'd have to believe even Ruben Amaro could squeeze out a few meaningful prospects for a top 5 left hander in the game.

Cole Hamels may be the most difficult to part with because he is the only Phillie that is truly still in the prime of his career. He's still owed yacht-ful of money, $90 million over the next 4 years, but once again his value should be able to bring back the Phillies several top prospects for any organization willing to pay the king's ransom that is Hamels' salary.

Jimmy Rollins has been playing his best baseball in years but Jimmy has a full no trade clause and isn't going to go anywhere until he breaks Mike Schmidt's franchise hits record. He should be able to do that by the All-Star break if he doesn't go into any kind of slump. Rollins could provide a team with gold glove defense, big game experience, and some pop at the shortstop position. Rollins may not warrant a ton on the open market given his age, but if someone's buying the Phillies should be selling.

With the contracts where they stand, and even with Jonathan Papelbon being nearly the best closer in the game through 1/4 of the season, he and Ryan Howard are virtually untradeable. It's sad, but the Ryan Howard contract has been an albatross since before it began. He's on track to have his best year since it was signed but all of his peak years are far behind him. Papelbon was a glaring question mark coming into the season and while he's done some to quell that internally, he'll have to produce at this level up until the trade deadline to be able to get traded. Of course, if Ruben Amaro didn't make him the highest paid reliever in history he might have a bit more value, but that's not the case.

Even if the current management does have the stones to pull off a trade of any of the marquee names it will be imperative that they don't whiff on the prospects they receive. For instance, Amaro can't get back the poo poo platter that was Phillipe Aumonte, Tyson Gilles, and JC Ramirez which the Phillies received when they sent Cliff Lee packing the day they signed Roy Halladay. God look at those names. Cliff was an absolute beast coming off the 08 and 09 seasons and the Phils literally got no major league talent in return. That can't happen again.

Picking talent in baseball is a fickle matter. Clearly, the people in the organization who have been making these judgement calls of late are not getting the job done to any one's satisfaction. The blame for the Phillies rapid demise has to be organization wide. Otherwise, it would not have been so rapid. The farm system has just not produced any player that could move the needle after churning out the once and current stars of this roster. Is that because the Phils were picking at the end of rounds in the draft for quite a few seasons? Or because they just aren't picking the right people at the end of those rounds? It's time for the scouting department to shape up or ship out as well. Where's Pat Gillick and Mike Arbuckle when you need them?

Of course, it is only May and the Phillies have at least another month to show us they may be able to win more ball games than they lose.  I just wouldn't bet on it and I'd rather the Phillies be relevant in 3-5 years than irrelevant for 10 because they hung on to a golden era too long. See Philadelphia Phillies - 1984.

One dog goes one way and the other dog goes the other way.

* Caesar Hernandez is hitting .214 but he just got called back and has only appeared in 7 games. Wil Nieves is the backup catcher for those of you who don't know. He does not stand to get many starts but the Phillies are 5-2 when he does, and he started Sunday in the PapelGate Game.

** Antonio Bastardo is home grown talent. Take that for what it's worth.