After Monday’s 12 inning 6-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers I thought it was time to comment on the struggling Phillies’ offense. Instead, I thought I would give them one more game to see if they had any spark. Roy Halladay took the mound Tuesday night and if that does not give your offense a little pep, what does?
If you told me the Phillies score was 9-0 after 9 innings I would have put good money on the Phillies being on the winning end of that one. Unfortunately, this season is already starting to get the feel of last season as far as the Phils’ bats are concerned. This is not exactly time to push the panic button, but it sure would be nice if the Phillies offense was showing more signs of life. Especially considering Jayson Werth is not walking through that door, and Chase Utley is not walking through that door any time soon, to steal a phrase from former Boston Celtics coach Rick Pitino. Considering the Phils are still a half game up on the Florida Marlins for the division lead in mid-April it is safe to say we are still nit-picking when it comes to complaints about the Phils. This is not September. The Phils are notoriously a second half team, but with all this pitching the expectations are outrageously high.
Let’s dissect this thing a little bit shall we? When you just take a look at the batting average of the Phillies as a whole, things do not seem all that bad. They are hitting .277 (down from over .300 less than a week ago) but that is still good enough for fifth place in the National League. Batting Average is not the issue with this squad, not yet anyway. Their on base percentage is also a respectable .332, good enough for sixth in the NL. Here is where things start to tail off for the boys in red pinstripes. They are slugging only .387 which lands them in 10th place. Their OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage) is .719 which is bad enough for ninth in the league. Some baseball gurus consider OPS one of, if not the most, important stats for an offense in baseball. Just try to get through a Peter Gammons segment on ESPN without him slobbering over Mark Teixeira’s or Kevin Youkilis’ OPS. Does he ever talk about any player outside of the AL East? The major bomb gets dropped when you see that the Phils only have 11 home runs in 16 games. Ryan Howard has not hit a home run in 23 at bats and is not receiving much protection in the form of Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez (Howard is 3rd all time in at bats per home run at 12.88 just ahead of Barry Bonds, and behind Mark McGwire and Babe Ruth.) The power outage is evident. Francisco has not homered in 11 games and Ibanez has one home run (in an 11-0 win vs. the Mets). Meanwhile, in front of Ryan Howard the batting averages look good and Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco are producing. Jimmy Rollins is hitting .277 but he has just four doubles and zero home runs through 16 games. This is a guy who once hit 30 home runs from the leadoff spot. Every game McDonald’s sponsors the Phillies Lucky Home Run Jackpot, and the winner receives $100 if the Phils homer in that game. If the Phils do not homer in that particular game the money would carry over like skins in golf, and the next game would be worth $200 and then $300 and so on until the Phils put one in the seats. Back in the glory days of this offense (2006-2009) that jackpot never went above $100. These days it seems as if I hear about a $200 or $300 jackpot every other game. This is not going to cut it.
Obviously, the Phils have the four horsemen who have all shown their typical signs of brilliance this year. But they have also showed that they are susceptible to the occasional bad outing, which is commonplace. It is up to the Phils’ offense to keep the pressure on other teams because our pitching will win out if the offense can do their job.
The way I see it, the Phils have to average a little more than four runs per game to win the division with the surplus of pitching they currently enjoy. Their average runs per game since 2007 are as follows: 2007 – 5.34, 2008 – 4.93, 2009 – 5.06, 2010 – 4.77. Obviously, scoring a little more than four runs per game should not be an issue for a ballclub that has been well over that mark for years. They are currently averaging 4.94 but take a look at their run production over the last week and a half – 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, and 0. Basically, since Chooch hit that pinch-hit grand slam against the Braves this offense has taken a nose dive. Hopefully, Charlie has what it takes to get this team back on track. Do not be surprised to see some shakeups in the lineup, especially during a day game like we have today. Cliff Lee takes the mound in attempt to avoid getting swept by left hander Chris Narveson and the Brewers.
This is only the first two game losing streak of the season. I figured it was time to criticize the best team in baseball…
Here is a fun baseball related video to brighten your spirits, you mean Rick Vaughn? (Skip to 1:25 in this video)
Werth Watch:
Jayson Werth's Washington Nationals are treading water so far this season. They are 8-7 and certainly right in the thick of things after winning three straight. Werth himself is struggling big time. He is hitting .150 over his last 10 games and his average has dropped to the Mendoza line - .200 on the nose. He is walking quite a bit, 8 walks, but that is about his only positive offensive stat. He even sat out Monday's game as a healthy scratch.
A blog chronicling the trials and tribulations of the Philadelphia Phillies and other moderately interesting musings.
Is there reason to be concerned considering 2010 was the lowest average runs per game since '07 and there was a net-loss in terms of offensive ability going into the remainder of the season? Is it possible that there is a reason why teams don't try to land 4 aces on their rosters and deal with inning-eaters for their (sometimes) 3, 4, and 5 spots? The fact of the matter is that there is an opporunity cost to paying top talent that deep into a pitching rotation and I hope that this season doesn't prove to be a case study as to why you don't allocate that much of your salary pool to the mound and rely on late-season heroics at the plate.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's time to get worried yet. Wait til the end of May/beginning of June, or as Charlie likes to call it "Hittin' Season." The fact is, it's just tougher to hit in April. Still working out the kinks in your swing, and weather isn't helping either. Howard could easily have 3 more homers, if we we're playing in summer weather.
ReplyDeleteMr. Parkman, you're a great hitter and I'd just like to say: You're on the tracks and the train's coming through, butthead.
Joe.. bottom line is that we do not need to score as much as we did the last 5 years. That is why the money was spent on Lee/Halladay. Understand that we are paying Howard a ton of money, and Utley is somewhere in the 80-90 million range total. The big bsats are getting paid too. Like Mark said, I am not too concerned about the offense now, but I am concerned that Howard does not hit the ball in the air when he pulls it. It is not quite a certainty, but more than 75% of the time when he puts the ball in play its on the ground to the right side and in the air to center and left. It is just easier to hit home runs when you pull the ball. That's science. He needs to get back to doing more of that.
ReplyDelete