Game 3 2015 NBA Finals - Warriors vs. Cavaliers Running Diary

Can Lebron pull another rabbit out of the hat tonight in Cleveland?

Improbably, the NBA Finals are tied at one game a piece as the series shifts from Oakland to Cleveland. Lebron James will look to continue to exert his will on a matchup that has become a one-man show. The Hitter's Count is bringing back the running diary gimmick for a pivotal game three after two straight overtime thrillers at Oracle Arena, so this game will probably be a runaway for the Warriors knowing my luck..

The Golden State Warriors and this year's MVP Stephen Curry have been a juggernaut all season. They posted the best offensive and defensive team numbers (according to those efficiency gurus that are so chic these days) which led them to a 67-15 regular season record. They went 39-2 at home and Cleveland handed them just their 4th loss all season (playoffs included) in game 2. Curry suffered through the worst shooting night of his professional career going 5-23 from the field including a putrid 2-15 from beyond the arc. Still, the Warriors are so deep that they stayed in the game with their best player having an off night. Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala (the former Sixer who does not start for the Dubs) could all be considered better players than every healthy player on the Cavs aside from Lebron James.

But that's where James comes in. He's why I'm writing this right now. If you haven't been watching this series, you should start tonight. Lebron is in his 12th year in the league. He's won 4 MVPs, this is his 6th Finals appearance, of which he's won 2, and there isn't much of an argument to be made that he's ever played better or bigger than he has in the first two games of this series. To set the record straight I am a Sixers fan, first and foremost, but we all know how bad things have been since Allen Iverson left so I've just tried to latch on to watching history, watching greatness. I guess I understand the Lebron haters, there are plenty, but I'm not with that camp. I want to watch somebody transcendent if I'm not going to see my team win, and there's nobody better to watch on the planet than Lebron James. He's Magic Johnson, crossed with Larry Bird, crossed with Michael Jordan, in Karl Malone's body.*

In game two on Sunday night I finally saw what my version is of Lebron's best game. It came out of necessity. In the first round of these playoffs Cavs' All-Star forward Kevin Love dislocated his shoulder and was lost for the season. Love is a 6 foot 10 rebounding machine who doubles as the best 3 point shooter on the team. This was a big blow. The Cavs sauntered through the rest of the Eastern Conference Playoffs with little resistance even with All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving missing games with tendinitis in his knee. Irving was having a terrific first game of the Finals until he went down with a fractured knee cap in the 4th quarter. These injuries put the onus 100% on Lebron James' broad shoulders for game 2 and he came away with the following line: 39 points 16 rebounds and 11 assists. Sure he shot an Iversonesque 11-35 from the field but he absolutely needed to take that many shots. Nobody else on the team is even capable of getting their own shot, aside from a step back 26 footer from JR Smith.

For years I've watched and hoped that James would impose his will on games and series like he has so far in this year's Finals. He's been the best player on the planet for about a decade and often times he has looked passive and wanted to be too much of a facilitator during big games. Now that Love and Irving are out, Lebron has nothing but defenders and rebounders playing along side him so he must be the scorer, the playmaker, and the unquestioned leader of his team and he's done that through two games. In this "pace and space" era of the NBA where teams cut, drive and dish, and constantly try to find open 3s for spot-up shooters the isolation offense has become almost extinct. Except for Cleveland, where the Cavs will get Lebron the ball on the left wing in post up position at least 20 times a game and let him go to work 1 on 1 against which ever defender the Warriors think can slow him down the most. Tonight I'll be doing a running count of isolation plays for Lebron, there will be plenty. Nobody runs offense like this any more in the NBA, but when you have the best player in the world it does seem to make sense to just let him do his thing. 

Perhaps its smoke and mirrors and the Warriors will find their groove in Cleveland. They are without a doubt the better team, but right now they don't have the best player and that's what matters for Cleveland.

Check back later in the day for random thoughts and updates. The game begins at 9 PM.

*** Running Diary Starts Here - Shown In Reverse Chronological Order ***

11:51 PM EST: Well, Steph Curry gave it up after an early double team and even though he had a lot it was too little too late. Remarkably, the Cavaliers take a 2-1 lead in the series. Lebron has the most points in the first 3 games of a finals with 123. That's 41 a game if you're scoring at home.

In the post game interview Lebron responds that Delly is made of steel when asked about the Australian's composition. He refers to the team as gritty. He says he's not sure if he can keep putting up these numbers but I figure he can at this point.

Final score Cavaliers 96 Warriors 91.

What an incredible game. I won't soon forget it. Thanks for enjoying it with me.


11:49 PM EST: Give James 40 as he calmly nails both free throws after a tense inbound. Maybe ball deny Curry here.

11:46 PM EST: Unreal whistle on the inbounds play and the referees are conferring for over 3 minutes. The replay clearly shows it should be Cavs ball after Klay Thompson touched the ball while standing out of bounds. They're not even reviewing it!
 
Oh, now we have our replay guru on saying "Sometimes you have a brain cramp" and alluded to the refs not knowing you can review in this situation. It is now Cavs ball. Are you kidding me what else can happen? Took them at least 3 minutes to decide to review. What a mockery.

11:43 PM EST: Never a guarantee at the line, James drains 2 to make it a 6 point game. Give him 38 and Curry comes down with a legit YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME 3! Timeout Cavs up 3 with 18.8 to go. This series has delivered 3 gems. If I wasn't typing I'd be speechless. You will have to see this Curry 3, a thing of beauty with a pull up on a near dead sprint around multiple screens to keep them in this game.

11:40 PM EST: To quote Snatch "Of course f**kin, of course." Steph Curry drains a corner 3 off an inbounds play with an inch of daylight to make it. He has now hit 6 3s in the game. The Cavs just struggle to close out these games. 92-88 with 28 seconds to go, yeah, he made it in 2 seconds of game time.

11:39 PM EST: Cavs with back to back ugly turnovers just asking to keep the Dubs in it. WIll still take a borderline miracle without any timeouts down 7 with 30 seconds to go.

11:36 PM EST: Lebron steals the inbounds from Steph Curry. He makes both free throws on the foul that stopped what would have been one of the coolest breakaway dunks in a while.  Curry kiddin me?  

11:35 PM EST: Matthew Dellevadova has 20 points in an NBA Finals game. You gotta be shitting me. Under a minute to play and the Cavs will have to hold off the best 3 point shooters in the game to do it, amazing the Warriors are even in it but after getting it to a 1 possession game the Cavs responded with aplomb.

11:32 PM EST: Curry has found his stroke and keeping his team alive. He nails a 28 footer to get it back down to 5. 

11:28 PM EST: Steph Curry with a serious WTF moment after dribbling behind his back multiple times he throws the worst pass of his life. A behind the back no look to the guy in the front row and boy does Lebron make him pay. James nails a 3 at the other end to put the Cavs up 7 with 105 seconds to play. It's not your ball game, but it's devastating for a team that just erased 16 points of the 17 they needed to at the beginning of the quarter.

11:27 PM EST: Holy shit DELLLLYY!!. He drains a running rumbling bumbling stumbling heave and 1 to erase the 3 from Curry. He's got 18. HE'S GOT 18!!!

11:26 PM EST: We've got a David Lee sighting in the 4th quarter for the Dubs. Dude had 17 points all playoffs and has 8 in the quarter. Curry nails a 3 to cut the lead to 1.

11:25 PM EST: You believe this Pixels movie with Adam Sandler? I don't.

11:22 PM EST: Heart's beating a little faster with each Golden State launch at this point. James with a little pageantry playing up a possible tweaked ankle after a ridiculous alley-oop dunk on the break from Delly. He's at 31-12-8 and the Cavs are up 5 with under 4  to play.

11:20 PM EST: Shumpert misses two free throws in a 3 point game with 5 to go. That can't happen.

11:17 PM EST: Of course mettle had to be tested tonight. It couldn't be that easy for the Cavs. 6 to play in a 3 point game after Curry knifed through the D and drained a sweet reverse kiss off the glass. Where was this all game? Trademark slick behind the back move shook him free at 23 feet.

11:11 PM EST: The vibe has been completely flipped. Lebron misses 1 of 2 at the line and the crowd is deathly silent. They've been punched in the gut. It's 18-5 in the quarter only 4 minutes in. Curry nails a step back 3 to cut it to 4, he's finally showing some MVP form with 10 in the quarter.

11:09 PM EST: The lead is down to 6! and it feels like the isolations have slowed for Lebron. It was working like clockwork through 3, they'll get back to it.

11:04 PM EST: There's the first mini blitz of the game to start the 4th quarter. 3 buckets including a 3 from Iguodala in the corner to quickly make a 17 point deficit only single digits at 72-63. It's about damn time they scored more than 4 in a row. Timeout Cavs.

11:01 PM EST: Lebron is back in the game.

11:00 PM EST: Lebron is not on the floor to start the quarter and Delly just took a 1 footed 3. 

10:52 PM EST: I've lost count of the isos, but if you've seen that video I posted below I could have just made a carbon copy of it. James is dominating like only James can dominate. He's racked up 4 more assists while dropping 13 more points. Back-to-back triple doubles are within reach as the Cavs head into the 4th quarter up 17. We're seeing a virtuoso performance. He capped the quarter off with his 2nd block of the game stuffing Festus Ezeli at the rim. The Cavs are up 72-55 and it would be an all-timer at this point to see the Warriors come back. Feels like we're witnessing an all-timer for Cleveland though.


10:51 PM EST: After another assist from Lebron on a Mozgov dunk to put the Cavs up 20 Steph Curry finally gets a 3 to go. They're needs to be more where that came from.

10:49 PM EST : The lid is off the building as JR Smith drains a 3 assisted by Lebron to put the Cavs up 18! 66-48, this is some incredible basketball being played by the Cavs. 

10:43 PM EST: It's all Cavs with 4:41 to go in the 3rd. Lebron is imposing his will and the Warriors aren't quite self-destructing, but that term is certainly in the conversation. Getting 8 thus far in the quarter from Delly while Curry and Thompson have combined for 7 is tough to take.

James is doing it all I'd say. The Warriors have no pep in their step. They can't seem to get a bucket, or a call, but they are obviously a quick strike team.

 

Say it Mark

10:41 PM EST: So much action all for the Cavs mid way through the 3rd. Delly! Reigns another 3 off a rocket pass from Lebron out of the post. Curry finally gets a mid-range jumper to fall. But off a turnover Lebron hits a wide open 3 to put the Cavs up 11. The Cavs are playing with that pace the Warriors are looking for on the past few possessions.

10:38 PM EST: Steph Curry hasn't hit a bucket in 28 minutes. James hits a jumper from the wing, Warriors are in heap big trouble if that jumper starts to fall. It was the 12th iso.

10:32 PM EST: Here's a sequence for you. Matthew Delleavedova drains a 3 from the wing while Klay Thompson comes down and barely hits rim on a 3 he released so quick you only saw it clang off the backboard, then off that rebound Delly comes down and hits a floater. Cavs up 10. The Q going wild. Mark Jackson lets us know Delly is "feelin himself". Timeout Dubs. "Next man up" as the Cavs like to say.

10:31 PM EST: James has 13 9, and 3 but is only shooting 6-17. If he gets near a triple double tonight the Dubs are in trouble. 

The second half is underway and James scores on his first touch on a driving lay-up.


10:25 PM EST:  Iguodala leads all Warriors scorers with 10 points. Thompson has 6 on 3-9 and is 0-3 from 3. The bench has 21 of their 37 points. Like to know what Kerr is saying in that locker room. Wonder if he's pulling a story from a Finals game with Michael or Tim? Or if he's in the now? He's got some experience to pull from in that locker room either way. The Warriors are in need of a personality change at half. 

The Cavs give it to Lebron - who is not turning the ball over at a terrible rate with just 2 despite being so ball dominant - and he controls the action to the point that the Warriors can't play their game. The Dubs are just missing shots they normally make is what it comes down to for the most part though. We're in for a dog fight in this second half.


10:14 PM EST: The end of this half has been a defensive battle and Lebron may have gotten hit on his latest foray to the hoop but he spent way too much time bitching about it. Get over it and move on. 15 seconds left in the half - Cavs ball after a timeout - the Warriors somehow will finish the half with 37 points. Of course James finds James Jones with a rifle pass for a 3 ball that he calmly knocks down. 44-37 Cavs at half. Where is the offense Golden State? Where is your game Steph Curry? Time to step up.  You gotta go down swinging at least. He's got 3 points on 1-6 shooting.

10:09 PM EST: Steph Curry has been borderline non existent but the Dubs are just hanging around. He has 3 points while Delly has 5 with under 2 to go in the half. Lebron misses a bunny on what I have as his 10th iso.

10:03 PM EST: Wow after Lebron spends an entire possession dribbling around and finally laying a nice scoop lay-up in Tristan Thompson inadvertently knocks the ball out of the basket just as it got below the rim. Oh well. James scores on a lay-up the next possession.

He's fine with keeping this game in his hands. So's Cleveland.

9:59 PM EST: Shumpert is back in the game and the Warriors are 3-13 from 3. On cue Iman drains a 3 to put the Cavs up 7, guess he's feelin' alright.  

9:56 PM EST: Mark Jackson alludes to Muhammad Ali wearing down George Foreman in reference to what the Cavs bigs are doing to Andrew Bogut and company. Meanwhile Draymond Green hits his first 3 in 15 attempts and the play is getting increasingly physical with the refs letting a lot of contact go. Can't believe they tell Draymond to keep shooting them. Curry has just the 3 points and the Dubs are only down 3. Really long commercial break here.

9:51 PM EST: Curry re-enters the game after sitting the first 4 minutes of the 2nd. Dubs down 3, let's see if he can get them going. 

Draymond Green has his minimum once a game freakout over a foul he clearly committed. Looks like a clown every time.

9:46 PM EST: 7th iso, I skipped one for your benefit. Lebron scores this time on a driving lay-up to the right side from the center of the floor. Next possession sees JR get his first 3 of the night and he's 3-3 from the field. 2 more to go for that not so bold prediction. 31-26 Cavs.
  
9:43 PM EST: James Jones gets beat back door and commits his 3rd foul. Shumpert has not returned form what looked like a serious arm injury. Cavs are running out of players they ever play. I'm smelling a Shawn Marion sighting!

9:37 PM EST: The first quarter is in the books and the The Lebrons are up 24-20. The Warriors haven't quite hit stride and the Cavs got contributions from Tristan Thompson, 6 points and 7 boards,  and of course scrappy play from Delly and the venerable Mike Miller.

James took 10 shots, but only made three. He must've missed 5 shots in the paint as it isn't jumpers he's missing. They haven't been easy shots but he's missed some he should have made.

Nice commercial for the new Terminator movie starring Arnold of course. Man, I can't wait.

9:31 PM EST: 5th iso. Iguodala with the D this time and James misses a lefty lay-up ugly.

9:30 PM EST: After a nice drive by Curry through the lane that resulted in an assist and easy bucket James Jones hits a 3 and gets fouled. Because of course he does. 4 point play. 22-16 3 minutes left in the 1st.

9:25 PM EST: JR Smith hits his first bucket and Klay Thompson trades a two pointer back with him. 14-10 Cleveland.

And bad news for the Cavs. Iman Shumpert just took a hard screen and looked to crunch something in his arm. The Cavs call timeout and as he's in serious pain. The replay looked ugly.

9:20 PM EST: Curry has a wide open look go in and out and on the ensuing possession Lebron turned the corner after a screen and there was no help as Lebron threw down a dunk and had to duck his head as it hit the backboard. Lotta juice there. JVG insists Bogut should have put James on his ass, I don't disagree. He was just that late he couldn't do it.

9:18 PM EST: 4 isos, this one is "too easy" and off the right block, James took Barnes down low and spun baseline for a lay in. 8-5 Cavs.

Dellavedova is throwing up Dellevedova like floaters - if that's a thing - and got one to fall on this attempt. 10-5 Cavs and Steve Kerr gets an early timeout. Down only 5 less than 5 minutes in seems a bit premature to me. The crowd was about to tear the roof off though. 

9:13 PM EST: This might get tough, 3 Lebron isos. All on the left block. Sticking to the game plane early.

9:12 PM EST: 2 Lebron isos.. Curry knocks in the first 3 he takes. 6-3 Cavs 2 minutes in.

9:11 PM EST: Lebron isolation play number 1 - left block. Blows by Draymond Green and lays it in immediatley.

They show a clip of Lebron bowing to Jim Brown who's sitting courtside just before tip-off. Decent athletes those two.

9:11 PM EST: We're off.


9:09 PM EST: Still haven't tipped. Because of course not. Mama there goes that man - Mark Jackson, Jeff Van Gundy (JVG) and Mike Breen with the call. Jackson can't feel good calling this series having been canned as the head coach of the Dubs on bad terms last year. 

We'll see how much JVG complains tonight, hopefully he can contain himself.


9:03 PM EST: Rascal Flatts singing the National Anthem. I may have gone somebody a bit more rock and roll in Cleveland, but it was an impressive rendition and my wife certainly enjoyed it.

8:52 PM EST: We're listening to Doug Collins keys to the game. Number one is efficient offense in the first quarter. 

My key is:

The Cavs are going to get blitzed at some point in this game, probably more than once. If you've watched Golden State whisk their way through the playoffs it's some breathtaking hoops. The combination of Curry and Thompson is really like nothing any body has ever seen before. Their ability to launch threes with incredible accuracy in rapid succession makes them feel like they're 2 minutes away from flipping a 5 point deficit into a 5 point lead at all times. The Cavs have to limit those runs, which they've done by grinding the game to a halt by calling wheel Lebron all night.** Tonight will be about limiting those runs and somebody besides Lebron coming up clutch if the game is close late. 

I like the Warriors in this game but we're about to find out if Lebron can fulfill some destiny. It should be fun.

8:45 PM EST: Steph Curry has made 77 3s in this postseason. Most made all time.  Just another notch on his belt.

Per certain nefarious websites The Warriors (Dubs for the sake of the rest of this post to save my typing) are 2.5 point favorites with the over set at 196. Have to like the Dubs and the over no? You know if I was in Vegas.

The Cavs just took the floor for warm-ups and the atmosphere is raucous. The Dubs have entered and there is some Philly like boos getting rained. Reigned?

8:15 PM EST: Fast Times at Ridgemont High on IFC. 

"This guy's been stoned since the third grade." 

Don't sleep on IFC, you should be up on that channel frequently if you enjoy the classics.

8:04 PM EST: Not so bold prediction number 2 - I got the over on 2.5 3s made by JR Smith tonight.

7:22 PM EST: What do you think Lebron is listening to right now?


5:10 PM EST: 

NBA Finals schedule first four games:


Thursday June 4th in Oakland
Sunday June 7th in Oakland
Tuesday June 9th in Cleveland
Thursday June 11th in Cleveland


Can somebody explain to me why in the world there would be a 2 day rest in Oakland and then a 1 day rest when these teams have to fly across the country to Cleveland? Is Quicken Loans Arena booked for the Monster Truck Jam coming through town Wednesday? Were Ringling Brothers in Oakland Saturday night? The dates of these games may be even more asinine than the time they start. I'm looking at you David Silver.

3:52 PM EST: Not so bold prediction number 1 - The talk of Matthew Dellavedova being able to stop Steph Curry ends tonight.


12:17 PM EST: The game is at 9 PM tonight in Cleveland. I know there's generally East Coast bias for any kind of national event, but do we really need to wait until 9 PM so the West Coast can be home for these games? We're looking at a close to midnight finish on a school night. I'm planning on a large Starbucks around 8, is that grande or venti?





































* Jay-Z once rapped "I'm Michael, Magic, and Bird all rolled in one"
 ** Shout out Harley Moyer

We Call This a Winning Streak

Maikel Franco hits his first Major League Home Run - Photo Courtesy Philadelphia Inquirer

It has been a week since the Philadelphia Phillies last lost a baseball game. I didn’t think there was any way we’d be able to say that this year unless they strung together three in a row around the All-Star Break. In fact, the six game streak the Phils are currently riding is the longest since September of 2012 which also happens to be the last time they played meaningful baseball games. They’re playing good enough ball that I have to postpone the second volume of the The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly because I can’t come up with anything too bad this past week.

It really comes down to the offense finding a little  bit of life and the pitching staff doing their share to keep the Phils in games and hold leads late. In the first 34 games of the season the Phils scored four or more runs just 12 times, and they had an 8-4 record to show for it. In the other 22 games, when they scored 3 or less, they went 3-19. Yikes.

Cole Hamels got the Phils their first win of this streak (and also secured the 6^th straight in Colorado) against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 3-2 victory. Since that game, the Phils have run totals of 4, 4, 7, 6, and 4. It’s fairly simple, you score more, you win more. How have the Phils been doing it though?

The answer once again is simple. They are getting more hits. In the first 34 games of the season the Phils averaged 7.6 hits per game while the National League averaged a hit more at 8.6 per game. In those 34 games the Phils managed double digit hits just 5 times. During the 6 game win streak the Phils have had 4 double digit hit games and are averaging 9.8 hits per contest. They have raised their team batting average 17 points from .223 to .240 since the last Hitter’s Count post and are now 12^th in the NL in batting average as opposed to dead last.

There is still a serious lack of power from the offense, as they are averaging a measly .55 home runs per game when the NL average is .9 per game. That lack of power hasn’t stopped several key Phillies from raising their slugging percentage a considerable amount in the last six games. Ryan Howard is 8 for his last 16 and raised his average from .211 to .252. The Big Piece has impressive numbers for the month of May with a .327 average, .383 on base percentage, and .582 slugging mark. His strikeout rate has also come down a considerable amount from his career average. Howard is striking out 25% of the time this season down from a career 30% rate.

Meanwhile, Chase Utley, I don’t want to say he’s found a groove yet, but he’s certainly had better results at the plate since finally being dropped in the batting order to 6^th. It took Sandy a month too long to do this, 3 weeks if you want to be generous. Utley has hits in 7 of his last 9 games and has raised his average from .099 to .143. He has doubled in 3 consecutive games after only recording one two base hit in the first 36 games of the season.

But now to the important stuff. Hamels is doing what he can to keep his trade value very high and Howard and Utley are 2011’s news. The Phillies that may actually mean something when this team is good again are showing some signs of life and that’s really all us Phillies fans are asking for this year. That and hopefully 63 wins to avoid the triple digit loss embarrassment.

Somehow Freddy Galvis is still hitting over .340 - .341 to be exact. This is the same Freddy Galvis that started his 2014 season 1 for 30. He’s also proven to not be a serious drop off in talent at the shortstop position from Jimmy Rollins. This cannot be taken for granted. Galvis seems to make all the routine plays and can certainly go deep in the hole or dive for a ball up the middle, pirouette, and fire a strike to first. JP Crawford is waiting in the wings to be the heir apparent to Rollins, but outplaying Galvis for the shortstop spot would be a tall order right now. Perhaps, if Freddy is still playing at a high level he would be able to step in for Utley once his day finally comes.

And then finally we have young Maikel Franco. The 22 year old Dominican third baseman has arrived and early signs point to him being a stalwart at the hot corner for years to come. His call up was delayed until Friday in order to give him another year under Phillies control before his first chance at free agency. The Phillies have not lost with him in the lineup. Sunday he hit his first major league home run and that ball went 40 feet shorter than the triple he slammed off the center field wall. He’s also made several nice plays in the field and could give Phillies the first right handed at bat to look forward to since Jayson Werth left town.

In a sad bit of irony, the Phils won Cody Asche whiffle ball bat giveaway day two days after Asche was sent down to the minors to get some experience in left field. You have to chuckle at that.

Things will no doubt be tougher for the Phils than the past week has been, but hey let’s enjoy this while we can.


As part of a new initiative on The Hitter's Count Blog we're welcoming guest blogger Andrew Eisenhart. If you're a frequent reader of The Hitter's Count, you'll remember Mr. Eisenhart as the loser in the Michael Carter-Williams Shooting Challenge. Mr. Eisenhart will provide his generally unique opinions on different Phils matters via three paragraph essays. Here is his initial offering.

Phillies Pride

There is a great scene in the movie Trainspotting in which a few friends from Scotland argue over Scottish pride.  Ultimately, they determine that it is shite to be Scottish.  Personally, I happen to enjoy Scottish culture quite a bit; Edinburgh’s a fine town, I’ve been through there once.   However, this scene examines more than just an opinion.  It examines one’s ability to recognize that something you hold with such high pride is ultimately shite. 

With 10,150 losses since 1890, I think it’s time that we realistically examine our own pride for the Philadelphia Phillies.  They are the losingest sports club in this country, and perhaps the world.  If we lived in Europe, the club would most likely be playing year after year in either the country’s 4^th or 5^th division; playing in a wretched stadium with an optimistic future that could easily be compared to the optimism surrounding Syria’s economic future.  Luckily, for the owner’s sake, the MLB does not have a relegation system.  Therefore, as fans, we can take pride in 2 World Championships, 7 Pennants and 14 Playoff Appearances in 125 seasons. 

Recently, Jonathan Papelbon broke the organization’s saves record with 113 saves.  Go Jonathan!  If Papelbon were playing for the Colorado Rockies, a club that has been around since 1993, he would be 2^nd on their saves list.  This is salt in the wound for Phillies fans.   Not only are we a shite organization, but players realize this and choose not to remain and/or play in Philadelphia.  Papelbon, along with consistently making it clear he is fine with being traded, has made this sentiment very clear: “No, I would like to stay here.  But if I’m going to have to put up with this year after year, then no, I don’t want to be here.  Why would you?  Why would anybody?”

Jonathan, you are correct.

It is easier to think than write and this is what I think.  

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Vol. 1

Explaining the Phillies offense to Mrs. Gump

The first month of the season has ended and the Phillies are who we thought they were, to borrow a phrase from former NFL coach Dennis Green. They’re in last place in the NL East at 8-14, they have second worst run differential in the Majors at -40 (60 runs scored 100 given up) and they flat out can’t hit the ball. If anybody tries to complain to me about the current state of this year’s team my standard response is, “Well, what did you expect?”

This team does not have a chance to be good the same way the Sixers did not have a chance to be good in the wretched season they just finished. The problem is the Phils were put together with the intention of winning whereas the Sixers always intended to lose. This season will ramble on as a disaster but as fans of the Phillies it’s important to find some good in the ball club, even when it is almost all bad. That’s why we’re starting a new series on The Hitter’s Count Blog called The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. It’s a fitting name because each inning, each game, each series from here on out will most likely have some good, some bad, and some ugly to it, that’s just who the Phils are these days. Ryne Sandberg is the opposite of the Man With No Name because he’s not doing anything to help this collection of low grade baseball talent, but that’s for another time.

The Good

Holy shit! Is that Freddie Galvis hitting .361 after 21 games? A couple big hits? Flashy leather? Is a Phillie  making the most of an opportunity for the first time since Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth? Let’s not get carried away we’re not even ¼ of the way into the season but let’s do a quick comparison shall we?

Galvis                    Stat                        Rollins

21                           Games                  21

.361                        Avg                        .185

.403                        On Base               .280

.444                        Slugging               .333

9                              Runs                      10

3                              Errors                    4

.964                        Fielding %            .944

I’m sure none of us really expected Jimmy Rollins to turn back the clock in LA, but did anybody expect  Galvis to be out playing him at the plate and in the field after a month? No, nobody did.

Speaking of making the most of an opportunity (so far!), there’s young Rule 5 draft pick center fielder Odubel Herrera. Odoobs, as we call him, has been the most productive offensive player on the team and has held his own in center considering he was a second baseman his whole career until a few months ago. Odoobs is hitting .304 and leads the team in extra base hits (8), runs (9), and is second in steals (4), slugging (.430), and walks (5).  

Some other positives to take from the first month include Aaron "Lemon" Harang starting the season with 3 straight quality starts, he did not get his 4^th against the Cardinals Wednesday night. Jonthan Papelbon is 5 for 5 in save opportunities and only given up one run. Ken Giles, the heir to the Pap throne, has the most appearances and most innings in the bullpen, and the lowest ERA – he has yet to allow a run. Cole Hamels can’t seem to find the strike zone consistently but he’s still grinding out starts, and has his ERA down to 3.19 after a rough first two starts.

The Bad

It may be hard to distinguish the bad from some of the ugly as there will be plenty of both as the season goes on, but The Hitter’s Count will do its best. So we knew the offense would be bad coming into the season, but here’s just how bad it is with league ranks and the National League averages following each stat. Note this is out of 15 teams.

Runs – 60 / 15^th / 87

Hits – 157 / 14^th / 180

Doubles – 26 / 14^th / 36

Home Runs – 12 / 15^th / 18

Average –  .223 / 15^th / .248

On base – .280 / 14^th / .311

Slugging - .325 / 15^th / .385

Wow, painful just to get that down on paper. And that’s not even the ugly!! This is like that scene in Forrest Gump where the principal shows his mom this here’s normal, this here’s Forrest, and he points well below the minimum acceptable IQ. In this case, it’s every single offensive stat.  Too bad Sandy can’t sleep with somebody to get us out of this mess.

The Ugly

Chase Utley. My god, not sure I’ve ever seen anything as bad as Chase Utley’s stat line through the first month. Chase Utley is 8-70 on the season, hitting .114. EIGHT FOR SEVENTY! He went 3-3 with 2 home runs in a game against the Mets two weeks ago, so if you take away that game Utley is 5-77 (.064) with zero extra base hits. He does not have a double on the season. Chase has certainly hit into a ton of bad luck as evidenced by the advanced stat metric BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) where he is dead last in the league at .102. Regardless, it’s been raw sewage at the plate for Chase and stupefyingly Ryne Sandberg continues to pencil him in batting 3 every single night. Sandy had no qualms about dropping Ryan Howard down in the lineup as low as 7^th, and while Howard hasn’t responded to the tune of raising his average he has belted 4 home runs this week, which is nice. I just don’t get the thought process of Sandy continuing to bat Utley in the most important spot in the lineup when he’s proven to be in the worst slump of his career. Make it stop Chase, or Sandy, one of you. For the sake of everyone.

Jake Diekman. Oh boy. 9 innings pitched, 10 earned runs, 9 walks, 2.44 WHIP, 10.0 ERA. Time to rethink some things Jake.

We don’t need to get any more in depth than this. Until next time sports fans..

Welcome Back to Major League Baseball... Sort Of

Wishing this man all the luck in the world this season, he's going to need it.

The Philadelphia Phillies will begin their 2015 campaign this afternoon in South Philadelphia against the Boston Red Sox. It should easily be the most attended game of the season and will most likely be the only time the Phillies aren't below .500 for the year.

As the season begins it's safe to say that this is the least anticipated season in Phillies memory for anybody younger than 30 years old. I can't remember a time when there was less hope or future for a professional sports team. The fact that the people responsible for the decisions that turned a juggernaut into a laughing stock in the blink of an eye is a cruel joke played on the fans. It's insulting to our intelligence.

I normally run a season preview that breaks down the different aspects of the team but there is really no need for that this season. It's all garbage, trust me. Earlier this past week, the official Vegas lines came out for the over/under of win totals for each team in the league. The Phils came in at either 66.5 or 67.5 wins for the year depending on what site you're looking at. That is 4 games lower than any other team in Major League Baseball (The DBacks are 71.5). Vegas generally knows what they're doing if you haven't been paying attention to betting lines for the past 50 years.

I laughed at that number with the feeling that there is no way this collection of has-beens and never-will-bes (minus Cole Hamels) will be able to win that many games. Here is the text conversation that ensued from there between a few of my closest friends and I.

A few asterisks on the statements I made (I'm in blue). 
*Carlos Ruiz is 36
*Darin Ruf will turn 29 in July
*Cliff Lee is not dead 


So it will be an incredibly odd experience following this team this year. I'll tune in to catch the (luxury) train wreck that is the end of Ryan Howard's career. I'll tune in for Hamels' starts in the hope that he can be the best pitcher in the NL and net the biggest possible return for his services in a trade. I'll tune in to watch Chase Utley play in a shell of what Chase Utley used to be. I'll tune in to watch Freddy Galvis hit .215 and not be half the defensive shortstop Jimmy Rollins was. I'll tune in to watch Ben Revere be the weakest hitting corner outfielder (and really any position) in Major League Baseball. I'll tune in to laugh at anybody who starts a game for the Phils not named Cole Hamels. I'll tune in to pray Jonathan Papelbon can duplicate last season's performance so he can get traded off this team. I'll tune in to watch Ken Giles and Jake Diekman throw 100 MPH as over-worked set-up men. I'll tune in to see if the new Rule 5 center fielder, Odubel Herrera, has any discernible major league talent. I'll tune in to laugh and cry at anything that involves Dom Brown. I'll tune in to see if the new man in the booth, Ben Davis, will be better to listen to than Jamie Moyer. I'll tune in more to the radio than the TV broadcast because Larry Andersen is that good. 

Just know that I'll be tuning in way less than any year for the last 20 because the Phillies don't deserve our attention this year. The management was so insanely short-sighted that they don't deserve to be rewarded with high ratings or more than a half-full stadium. Maybe this is cynical, but considering Ruben Amaro is still calling the shots I feel like it's the only way to be.

I do love the Phillies, it's just a different kind of love these days. Here's to better days in the distant future..

Your Arrogance Offends Me

Editor's Note: The majority of the post was written prior to the signing of Demarco Murray.

Chip Kelly - Commander in Chief

I really considered Chip Kelly a borderline genius. He has seemed to make an offense go even when you’re not sure why it should. I don’t know that I doubt the man as a coach, but now that he’s taken over the player personnel responsibilities of the Philadelphia Eagles it feels like he’s let his ego get the better of him.

I keep going back to the Liam Neeson line from Taken when he talks to the thugs he knows are responsible for kidnapping his daughter.

“Your arrogance offends me”

 

I don’t think I’ve ever encountered arrogance like I’ve seen from Chip Kelly. I’ve felt it since he showed up here from Oregon but its been validated over the past 72 hours. I’ve never encountered a man who feels he’s more above talent than Chip Kelly. It's like he thinks anybody can do the things his talented former players can do, just because they play football for him.

I feel like I’m in a nightmare starring Andy Reid’s evil brother. As Eagles fans, we enjoyed great times with Reid. You can’t take away from the success he had here, but in the end when the talent ran out, in part because of Reid’s “I’m smarter than every one else here” attitude, Reid was unbearable. 

Reid talked down to the media. Condescension was thick. He did what he wanted to do and fulfilled his obligations to the media in a way that would make Greg Popovich seem endearing. And you know what? Andy Reid had a proven track record to give him some leeway to have that kind of attitude. He was responsible for picking Brian Westbrook in the 3^rd round and Trent Cole in the 5^th. He picked Donovan McNabb over Ricky Williams.  He might not have won a Super Bowl but he came closer than anybody else in Eagles history.

So what am I talking so much about Reid for?

Because Chip Kelly is making me miss Big Red and I’m the same guy who called for Reid’s head in this 2012 post.

Chip certainly came in hot during the 2013 season, setting Eagles scoring records and running an offense at a pace the likes of which nobody had ever seen in the NFL. He had a great regular season run fueled by a miraculous half-luck, half-talent, half-system aided all-time performance from quarterback Nick Foles.

Foles had a career year. Desean Jackson had a career year. Lesean McCoy had a career year. For chrissake Riley Cooper had a career year.

Remarkably, impossibly, insanely, Riley Cooper is the only one still employed by Jeffrey Lurie.

The Desean release just still grinds my gears. It’s the first domino in a mindset decision wise that has really trended the opposite of common sense and into the direction that Chip Kelly knows something we as fans don’t. Of course, Chip should know things we don't know as fans, but it'd be nice if any of those things seemed to make sense in making the Eagles a better football team.

It’s like I always have to talk myself into whatever Chip is trying to do, but logic gets in my way. Here’s what it’s like for me trying to justify the jettisoning of proven talent in my own head.

So long Desean..

If we forget about all of the off the field stuff for a minute, can you find a more valuable receiver to an offense than a guy like Desean Jackson? There’s just so many things he can influence positively that there is no way he isn’t worth the money if he’s performing at a peak level. Even the casual fan can understand that Desean Jackson has the kind of speed that worries a defense. It’s gamebreaking speed. It’s the kind of thing that can’t be replaced.You can’t tell me that the Eagles offense wouldn’t have been better this year if Desean Jackson wasn’t out there being Desean Jackson. But since we had him under contract we must’ve got something in return for him right? No, the smear campaign that the Eagles PR squad punted on didn’t do much for Jackson’s trade value, but a guy who just put up 1300+ yards and 9 TD has to be worth something right? Nope, we just cut him.  

Jackson's absence had to make things harder on the Eagles offense in 2014. You don’t think Lesean McCoy may have suffered a bit from safeties not being worried about Jeremy Maclin or Riley Cooper getting behind them? You don’t think Lesean McCoy may have struggled a bit if he had to run behind an offensive line that started 10 different men? Oh, Shady still ran for 1300+ yards for the third time in the last four years and is only 27? Okay. Shady did have a ton of touches and you always have to sell high on a running back. What did we get back? Shady has to be worth quite a bit performing at that kind of level and is still a few years before his age 30 season. Oh. We got back Kiko Alonso from the Buffalo Bills in exchange for Shady? What did he do last year I don’t follow the Bills that closely? Oh, he tore his ACL and didn’t play the whole season? Okay, at least he was really good his rookie year when he came out of Oregon... So the Birds have cleared some cap space and sent Shady packing. It’s hard to take because a guy with talent like that does not come around too often, but of course Chip’s system can allow anybody to plug in at running back and be productive. He knows what he’s doing.




Pour one out for your Eagles 25 jersey..

So now what’s this? Chip doesn’t think it’s necessary to re-sign Jeremy Maclin? Wow, Maclin is coming off a year just about as good as Desean’s 2013. He didn’t even have the benefit of Desean attracting attention on the other side of the field. He must’ve wanted a ton of money? Oh, it was reported to be a difference of $2 million between what the Eagles offered and where he signed with the Kansas City Chiefs? I guess all that extra cap space wasn’t for a guy who obviously has the chops of a premier wide receiver. Man, that leaves us with Riley Cooper as our number one wide receiver. Okay? I guess.


We hardly knew ya Jeremy. Hey Andy..

Oh. My. God. Chip is trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford? The same former number one overall pick Sam Bradford that has blown out his knee two consecutive years running? The same Sam Bradford that underwhelmed in St. Louis even when he was healthy?! Okay, the Eagles at least had to have gotten some compensation back from the Rams considering Foles is able-bodied and has a record of success from the past two years that can’t even compare to Bradford’s inability to stay on the field. Oh, what’s that? The Eagles actually gave up next year’s second round pick in this deal? You’ve got to be kidding me! What does Chip know that we don’t?!? He’s officially gone off the rails after this move. For the life of me, I can’t figure out how you’d want to give it a go with Sam Bradford over Nick Foles. To be fair, I don’t think either of these guys has what it takes to win a Super Bowl but the biggest kicker for me feeling like Chip has lost any form of a cohesive plan is the money owed to Sam Bradford. I thought we traded Lesean McCoy because he made too much money? At least McCoy was productive. Sam Bradford is coming in to Philadelphia with a $12.9 million salary and a $16.9 million hit against the salary cap. So let me recap this deal. The Eagles traded Nick Foles, a guy who went 14-4 under Chip Kelly and is scheduled to make $1.4 million this year, for Sam Bradford who if he can stay healthy through training camp will be stepping foot on an NFL field for the first time in 22 months. That’s hard to take and hard to understand as a fan of the Eagles. The fact that Chip also gave up a second round pick in the deal is staggering. There is a slim amount of solace in the deal in that the Eagles do receive a conditional 3^rd or 4^th round pick from the Rams in 2016 if Bradford cannot stay on the field. I just don’t get it..

So what could possibly come next?

Miraculously, Chip was able to fall ass backwards into saving face the day after it appeared like he fell flat on it. Somehow hated rival Demarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys was expressing interest that he wanted to come play for the Chipper. Somehow, some way, Chip and the Eagles were able to sign the biggest free agent on the market in reigning offensive player of the year Murray.

You have to thank Chip’s offensive system, and most likely Murray's former Oklahoma Sooner teammate Sam Bradford, for attracting a talent like that but the acquisition still feels odd to me. I have my doubts that Chip Kelly expected to have Sam Bradford and Demarco Murray as his QB1 and RB1 heading into the 2015 draft. I certainly could be wrong, but it just feels to me that he got lucky that Murray was still available and was willing to sign with the Eagles after Chip’s world seemed to be crashing down on him. The fact that the Eagles still signed oft-injured running back Ryan Matthews the same day they signed Murray also is quite perplexing considering the Eagles could sorely use a wide receiver with the loss of Maclin. But hey, I'm sure Chip knows something we don't.

Welcome to the squad Demarco

The bottom line is that Chip made about 13 straight moves that displayed an increasing level of arrogance. To some degree you need that ego to get to the level he is at, but  when you haven’t won jack shit in the NFL it remains to be seen whether that kind of superciliousness is warranted. You see arrogance from coaches all the time. Bill Belichik comes to mind. I follow Phil Jackson on Twitter and that guy is just a smug prick. But you don’t think of Belichick and Jackson without thinking about Brady, Jordan, Kobe and Shaq. Right now I think about Chip Kelly and I think about Desean Jackson and Lesean McCoy, so he can tone down that arrogance a bit until he actually wins something.

Dysfunction Junction

Killer jumpsuit Rube

“Ruben Amaro flew the plane straight into the mountain,” John Gallagher.

That pretty much sums up the last 3 years of Phillies baseball and another season lacking hope is staring us Phillies fans straight in the eye.

The 2015 Phillies will play meaningful games in just over a month and the atmosphere promises to be one of the most awkward and dysfunctional settings possible. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry when I read the different headlines coming out of Clearwater. Today marks the first day of a full squad practice but let’s take a look at what has been happening since the Phils finished the 2014 season last in the NL East.

We’ll start with the Ryan Howard in the room. Ruben put his hand on the table during the offseason; the only problem was he wasn’t holding any face cards. Somehow he thought it beneficial to announce to the media that the Phillies would be better off not having Howard on the roster. He took that one from the “No Shit!” department, but where was the gain in saying that? Maybe he thought he needed even less leverage with teams looking to acquire the highest paid position player in the MLB who happens to be aged, oft-injured, and no longer capable of slugging over .400. Maybe he wanted to have painfully awkward conversations with Ryan when no trade offers came in and Ryan remained on the team. Maybe he wanted to have to answer difficult questions from the media regarding Howard. It seems like he must have wanted to have to do these things considering what he said.

With the money Howard is owed, $60 million guaranteed for the next two seasons (25 this year and next then a $10 million buyout for 2017), it was already going to be next to impossible to trade him considering his lack of production. Ruben had to know this considering everybody who half-heartedly follows the Phillies knows this. So I repeat, what did he have to gain by saying publicly that the Phillies would be better off without Ryan Howard? The answer to that question is an even more dysfunctional clubhouse. There’s no reason you can’t say Ryan Howard is our first baseman to the media and then quietly shop him to every team willing to listen. At least it shows a more united front and doesn’t put Howard in the position to come into spring training absolutely dreading having to speak to the media.

Regardless of how he plays it will be interesting to watch Ryan Howard compete this year. How will he carry himself? How many games will he play? How many homers will he hit? How many times will he strikeout on a breaking ball down and away? I’m intrigued just getting to watch him still play every day, it’s like a science experiment.

Ruben is like the anti-Sam Hinkie. Did they both really go to Stanford? Sam at least seems to have a plan, whether you like it or not. Ruben is just lost at sea without a life jacket.

Next we have the only player on the Phillies that other teams find desirable. Once again, Ruben let it be known that Cole Hamels was on the trading block. Once again, I don’t see the need for the public display of lacking affection. It’s obvious that the Phillies are not operating from a position of power in the trade market, and Ruben continually places them in a place with less bargaining power by opening his mouth about what he’s trying to do. The writing is on the wall Rube, so there’s no need to read it aloud.

So last week USA Today broke a story with quotes from Hamels saying that he wants to compete but that the Phillies aren’t going to do that, essentially saying he wants out. That really gives the fans a warm and fuzzy feeling about the team’s best player. You understand where Hamels is coming from, but when you’re still owed $96 million from the only team that’s ever employed you it’s hard to take.

The goal will be for Hamels to pitch his ass off for the first few months of the season so that the Phillies can land the biggest return possible for him. It’s a shitty goal to root for, but that’s the reality.

Meanwhile, the ticking time bomb that is Jonathan Papelbon on a losing team has remained fairly quiet during this off season. The Papelbon situation is a catch 22. I’m of the opinion that Jon is actually smart enough to realize that if he shoots his mouth off or gets labeled as a clubhouse cancer (even more than usual) then he becomes untradeable. And there’s no way that Jonathan Papelbon wants to finish this season with the Phillies. I think he stays in line and pitches like he’s in a contract year to give himself the best shot at getting off this team. If he speaks his mind, it is awfully unlikely that any team will want to take on that headache and that contract (highest paid reliever in the history of the MLB – thanks Rube).

Cliff Lee’s return to the mound is probably the biggest enigma surrounding this ball club. If Lee can return to form it’s possible that the Phillies are not quite as wretched as everyone thinks they are going to be (At 275/1 to win the World Series the Phillies are the biggest long shot by more than double any other team). They certainly won’t hit the baseball, like at all. But if Lee and  Hamels are in peak form they shouldn’t have to be the worst team in baseball. Cliff seems to be in good spirits as he answered questions last week with the help of a Magic 8 Ball.

The reality is that the Phillies will in all likelihood start Dom Brown, Ben Revere, and Jeff Francoeur in the outfield. They’ll replace Jimmy Rollins with Freddie Galvis. Utley and Howard will be a year further out of their primes, same for Chooch. And hopefully Maikel Franco can play his way to the starting 3^rd baseman leaving Cody Asche as the main utility man. That doesn’t exactly sound like runs.

So let’s raise a glass to the 2015 Phillies, you’re going to need to regularly to get through this season.