The Phils Are Back!

So here we are again in early April, awaiting the start of a brand new Phillies season. The Phillies have been the overwhelming favorite to win their division each year, and to a lesser degree, the World Series since they won it all back in 2008. This year is no different according to the Vegas Bookmakers. While the Phils may be the favorites according to the sharps, this season has taken on a whole different feel from the fan’s perspective.

The excitement at the beginning of last season, even with no timetable for a Chase Utley return, was palpable. Cliff Lee was back in red pinstripes and we had Roy Oswalt for a full season to pair with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. Of course, this year we still boast the best top of the rotation starters in Major League Baseball with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. But a giant question mark surrounds the rest of the team. Trepidation might be the best word used to describe how most Phillies fans are feeling these days as we head into the marathon 162 game season.

For the first time since 2005, Ryan Howard will not be starting at first base on opening day. For the second season in a row Chase Utley will not be starting at second base on opening day. Raul Ibanez will not be patrolling left field. Jayson Werth will start his second season with the Nationals. Brad Lidge will start his first season with the Nationals. Ryan Madson will be closing for the – scratch that, Ryan Madson is out for the season requiring Tommy John surgery for torn ligaments in his elbow and is no longer employed by the Phillies. Wilson Valdez will not be around to be a stop gap for our injured infielders. At this time, there is no definitive date of return for the Phillies two most important offensive players.

If these were normal injuries, we could possibly say “4-6 weeks” or some sort of timeframe that you always see scroll across the bottom line of ESPN when they are projecting these sorts of things. These are not ordinary injuries. Howard’s is a bit more stable, a torn Achillies tendon. Apparently the wound from a surgery like this does not heal (pun intended) well, and Howard ran into a set back with an infection to the incision on his repaired foot. Before that, it was thought that he was ahead of schedule and could return in May, but at this point nobody is saying when Ryan Howard will step into the batter’s box for the Phillies this season.

Chase Utley’s situation is worse, much worse. I don’t care what Ruben Amaro did or did not say about this injury during spring training. It doesn’t matter does it? The bottom line is that Chase Utley’s condition is chronic and degenerative. Two words you don’t ever want to hear about the franchise’s best ever 2nd baseman. He is 33 years old and all signs point to Utley never regaining his “sure fire lock for the Hall-of-Fame if he doesn’t have degenerative knees” form. Considering my last blog post, I will now go turn on my oven and put my head in. Just kidding, but man I just don’t know what to think about Chase? It pains me to think he’ll never be the same, and at this point I think we all have to accept that as a reality. Even 75% of Chase Utley is better than 75% of the second baseman in this league. And you know his work ethic, demeanor, and overall badassness will rub off on the rest of the team the way it always has. He just needs to man up and play through the pain, which I’m sure he has been doing for the past few years, so let’s just hope he figures it out. I feel like Morgan Freeman in Shawshank.. I hope. I hope Citizen’s Bank Park’s grass is as green as it is in my dreams..

Despite all this turmoil, like I said before, the Phillies are still the favorites in Vegas to win the World Series this year. That is pretty unbelievable at first thought, but then when you do think about it a little bit more: It is completely believable. I mean, come on! Do you think the Pirates are looking forward to their first series this year? They are going to have to face Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels in their first three games this season. All three of these men finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young vote last year. Read that sentence again. Now how about this. Look at all these categories that all three of them were in the top 10 for last year. Get ready for your mind to be boggled.

WAR – Wins Above Replacement (This is one of those advanced metric statistics that statheads rely heavily on. It basically calculates how many wins a player creates for their team. So a “replacement player” is the most average ballplayer there can be and he would not create any wins for your team)

WAR for pitchers.

1. Halladay 7.4
3. Lee 6.9
5. Hamels 5.4

To put WAR in perspective, Cy Young Winner Clayton Kershaw had 7.0 and “juiced up” MVP Ryan Braun had 7.0 as well.

ERA

2. Halladay 2.38
3. Lee 2.40
6. Hamels 2.79

Wins

3. Halladay 19
4. Lee 17
9. Hamels 14

WHIP (walks and hits per inning)

2. Hamels .986
3. Lee 1.027
4. Halladay 1.040

Innings Pitched

2. Halladay 233.2
4. Lee 232.2
9. Hamels 216.0

Strikeouts

2. Lee 238
3. Halladay 220
9. Hamels 194

Sorry, sometimes I get a little carried away when it comes to baseball stats, but I felt it incumbent upon me as the guy who’s blog you read when you’re bored to make sure you knew that the Phillies are still the World Series favorites because pitching is what dominates this sport. And the Phillies have it in spades.

Hallady, Lee, and Hamels will make over $40 million combined this year, and that number is only going to go up (read - skyrocket once Hamels signs and Lee’s bigger money years start kicking in) in the next few years. This year, however, these guys need to earn every last penny of their paychecks, possibly more than any future year due to the current injuries. There is almost no doubt that the Phillies offense will be stagnant at times this year. Even with a full (somewhat) healthy roster in the playoffs last year the Phils managed 3 hits and put up a big fat goose egg in the deciding game 5 of the NLDS. Let’s not get into that, but you all remember it. So, these pitchers know that this offense is more than capable of sinking faster than the Titanic, and that it will be on the big 3 to make 3 or 4 runs stand up as a win every night.

I have to assume that the drive behind these pitchers should propel them to continue their stretch of greatness. Halladay has never pitched in a World Series, let alone won one. Lee lost back-to-back World Series in 2009 with the Philles and 2010 with the Rangers. He also BLEW game two of the NLDS last year with the Phillies leading 4-0 in the second inning. I hope these things make him angry. I hope when he gets angry he dominates. Cole Hamels is the third banana on this team, when he would be the top guy on more than half of the teams in the majors. He also is in a contract year, so he is pitching for what should be one of the most lucrative contracts ever signed. I hope his desire to be recognized as as good as his two All-Star teammates drives him to continue his dominance. I hope.