What to Expect - The 2013 Phillies

Opening day is in our sights, in fact today is the last Grapefruit League game and Roy Halladay (gulp) is taking the mound. If you have been staying current with The Hitter’s Count Blog you know that there is no shortage of storylines when it comes to the Phillies this season. The problem is; we as fans really do not have much of a clue as to how the season is going to turn out. If spring training is any indicator, the Phillies should at the very least be in for an interesting season.

I know that I have seen the book “What to Expect When You Are Expecting” multiple times. Well, I’m not expecting that kind of bundle of joy, but we’re going to take a bit of a twist on that premise for this blog entry. “What to Expect When You Are a Phils’ Fan” will be the MO of this update. Of course, this will all be from my point of view so feel free to let me have it in the comments section, or corroborate my prognostications. Either way is fine by me. Just know that I’m going to get pretty specific with my predictions because who wants vague generalizations about what to expect. Let’s get started!

The Phillies: 89-73 – Wild Card winner. The Phillies have too many “guys that know how to get it done” for me to believe that this year can’t still lead to a postseason berth. The competition in the division is probably the stiffest it has ever been with the current division alignment. Regardless of how Roy Halladay pitches the Phillies should still have two aces up their sleeves and a lineup that should be able to produce more runs than it did last year. A healthy Chase Utley and Ryan Howard should go a long way in making them better than last year. If the bullpen does not self-destruct, and there are more reliable arms there than there were last year, then the playoffs should be well within reach.

The Nationals: 94-66 – Division winner. The Nationals remind me of the Phillies in 2007 with younger talent. This is not good for the Phillies. They have two top tier starters in Steven Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. Their lineup is solid and they have a catalyst in superstar in the making Bryce Harper. Harper will begin his first full season in the majors coming off a spring training where he basically ripped the cover off the ball for a month straight. They will be tough to beat.

The Braves: 87-75 – 3^rd place NL East. This might just be wishful thinking on my part but Tim Hudson has to get old one of these days right? They added the brothers Upton. Justin will certainly be an upgrade in the infield but BJ seems to not care too much of the time for me to think he’ll be great. He’s also replacing Michael Bourn, who may not have the power BJ has, but he certainly could hit and steal bases better than most. The Braves have possibly the best bullpen in the NL so it will be tough to come from behind against them and their closer Craig Kimbrel.

The above three teams will beat up on each other and possibly scuffle with the Mets a bit. The Marlins could set a record for most losses in a season this year.

Wait the Marlins still have a team? Yup! Uniforms and everything. Placido Polanco and Juan Pierre will be starting for the fish in South Beach. Good luck!

Cole Hamels: 21-7 – 2.73 ERA – 222 strikeouts. Hamels signed his massive contract last year. He’s starting on opening day ahead of two guys that have won Cy Young awards. He has proven postseason chops. Having said all that, it is time for Hamels to step his game up a notch and become that pitcher you don’t worry about. He needs to be that guy where you’re thinking, “Oh, Cole is on the hill tonight. We’re gonna win.” He will come into his own this season and really start to cement his legacy as one of the best Phillies of all time. Enough said.

Cliff Lee: 15-9 – 3.45 ERA – 196 strikeouts. Cliff remains an enigma to me. He can be the most dominant pitcher in the game, as we saw in June 2011 when he threw 4 complete game shut outs in a month. He can also miss his spots and get roughed up more than you would think is possible. My prediction is that he will have periods of brilliance coupled with periods of getting knocked around. I guess I’m fine with this scenario, but it would be nice for him to keep the getting knocked around to a minimum considering he’s making $20+ million this year. His control will be the key to this.

Roy Halladay: 13-10 – 3.92 ERA – 147 strikeouts*. Well, here’s to hoping spring training means nothing. From all reports I’ve read or heard, Doc is borderline washed up. If I have to hear about his velocity being down one more time I might throw up. He should be the best third starter in the game, but he’s going to have to get by more on guile then he ever did before. Think Pedro Martinez as a Met, hopefully not Pedro Martinez as a Phillie.

*These stats are assuming he makes 30+ starts which sounds like an “if” at this point.

If the Phillies can squeeze 49 wins out of these three starters then the playoffs can happen.

Ryan Howard: .277 – 43 HRs – 139 RBI – Top 3 MVP voting – The Big Piece is back baby! I’m throwing last season out the window, why? Because I can. He was garbage last year and it showed. He couldn’t hit righties, he couldn’t even see the ball against lefties. I’m putting stock into the fact that he was still hurt and out of shape. He currently leads spring training in home runs and several were off of left handed pitching. He will be the anchor in the cleanup spot like has been for so long. Count it.

Chase Utley: .291 – 19 HRs – 86 RBI – 145 games played. If we’re anywhere close to those numbers I will not be surprised. Once again, I’m going on what I have heard and read but apparently Chase is locked in at the plate and feeling better then he has in years. We know he only has one gear so this is the year he sheds that Andrew Bynum disease and gets back on the horse for the Phils.

Jimmy Rollins: .255 – 14 HRs - .310 OB – I can’t see Jimmy getting it done in the leadoff spot any more. In order for Utley and Howard to have a better chance at being productive, then Jimmy needs to be getting on base. He did not do it enough last year and he was healthy all season. Why is he going to do it this year?

Domonic Brown: 150 games - .252 – 17 HRs – 68 RBI – Well, here’s to hoping spring training means a lot. Ha! Dom Brown has been possibly the best player on the Phillies for the entire spring. He’s been hitting for average and power and making plays in the field. I’m of the opinion that he will be very frustrating to Phillies fans this season. He has the tools and the power to open some eyes but he has also had enough exposure at the Major League level for me to believe that he will never be more than an average everyday player. He will be sure to make some mental mistakes and have clutch hits in the same game. He will be infuriating and brilliant at the same time but hopefully we no longer have to question if he belongs in starting lineup every day.

These seven players will have by far the largest impact on the Phils’ chances for success this year, so we are going to stop the predictions here. Instead of in depth analysis I’m going to list the rest of the players on the roster in their order of importance according to me.

Jonathan Papelbon – Closer

Ben Revere – Centerfielder

Michael Young – 3^rd base

Carlos Ruiz – Suspended Catcher

Kyle Kendrick – 4^th Starting Pitcher

John Lannan – 5^th Starting Pitcher

Mike Adams – Set-up man

Antonio Bastardo – Set-up man

Delmon Young – Platoon Outfielder

Darin Ruf – Platoon Outfielder

John Mayberry Jr – Platoon Outfielder

There will certainly be other names and faces that contribute to whether or not the Phillies are any good this season, but I have now at least equipped you with the integral pieces that will make or break the 2013 season. Let’s goooo!

Deal or No Deal - Ruben Amaro's tenure as GM

“Sports, I like sports,” George Costanza once said.

Whenever I think about the general manager of a baseball team I tend to think of that scene. That doesn’t have much to do with anything but I just wanted to give you a glimpse inside my head. Because once you get inside, there’s no turnin’ back baby.

Here’s a quick recap of the results of the last 5 Phillies seasons.

2008 – World Series champions

2009 – Lost in World Series (Yankees)

2010 – Lost in NLCS (Giants)

2011 – Lost in NLDS (Cardinals)

2012 – Lost too much to get into the playoffs

Notice any pattern?  Beside the fact that the team the Phillies lost to in each of those series won the World Series that year. Well, Ruben Amaro Jr. took over as GM in 2009.

A lot of credit has to go to Ed Wade as the man who laid the foundation for the (hopefully still) current run of Philadelphia Phillies dominance. Even more credit has to go to Pat Gillick who was the mastermind and architect behind getting a team with one burgeoning ace, a few All-Star infielders in their prime, and a bunch of also-rans to the pinnacle of baseball in 2008.

Think about it, the Phillies really overachieved considering the talent they had on the 2008 pitching staff. Especially if you compare it to every staff they’ve had since. Obviously, Hamels was untouchable during the entire 2008 postseason run, you don’t win NLCS and World Series’ MVPs without dominating. Hamels started and won game 1 of the World Series, but then take a look at who started the next three games. Brett Myers went in game 2 and the Phils lost 4-2. That wily old-timer Jamie Moyer took the hill in game 3 and kept the Phillies in it long enough to allow them to win 5-4 in a game that included home runs from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Carlos Ruiz. “Fat Joe” Blanton started and socked a homer in a game 4 rout that saw the Phillies win 10-2. Howard homered twice in that game. Of course, Hamels started game 5 which the Phillies eventually won after a 2 day rain delay.

Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton. Not that impressive of a staff but it was all the other moves that Gillick made that seemed to work out much better than any one could have expected. Nobody really knows how he did it, but Brad Lidge was perfect for the entire season when converting saves. JC Romero knew how to throw strikes back then. But really the biggest of all GM related moves were the acquisitions of Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Neither of those guys had done much of anything with their careers before their time in Philadelphia. Gillick, and by extension Charlie Manuel, took a chance on those two and it could not have worked out any better for all involved. The Phillies won the World Series and got back to it a year later. Victorino and Werth played pivotal rolls in more than a few postseason games, and they both proved to be All-Star caliber players when given the chance to play every day. Hell, Werth signed $126 million contract in free agency and Victorino just cashed in to the tune of 3 years $39 million with the Red Sox.

Gillick really seemed to have a knack for finding value in guys that nobody else found value in. It is really the best way to build a championship franchise but it is also really difficult. Winning the World Series in 2008 with marketable stars coupled with a brand new fan friendly ballpark meant that the Phillies have been printing money for the last five years. As the General Manager of a baseball team, that can be a gift and a curse.  When a GM is given free reign to spend and spend then expectations for a team can only grow. Maybe it was a perfect storm that got the Phillies a title in 2008, but Amaro has been determined to create another one ever since.

Ruben inherited a team with serious talent and immediately looked to improve upon a pitching staff that could get the Phillies back to top of the baseball world. You can’t fault the following moves made by Rube: The initial Cliff Lee trade, signing Roy Halladay, acquiring Roy Oswalt, signing Cliff Lee, and trading for Hunter Pence. Sure there have been more moves made, but every one of these moves was made in attempt to “put the Phillies over the hump.” If things fell the right way, any one of these moves could have proven to be a main reason the Phillies won another World Series. Essentially, even though the Phillies have not won another title you can’t put any blame on those moves as to reasons why they haven’t.

Of course, there have been plenty of other suspect transactions that Amaro has authorized since he took over and I would not be doing my job as lowly Phillies blog writer if I did not point out some of these. Last year, the hopeless triumvirate of Jim Thome, Ty Wiggonton, and the still on the roster Laynce Nix were supposed to fill in for a gimpy Ryan Howard. Job not well done. As the Phillies roster currently stands, Amaro has not done much with the corner outfield positions. This has been a combination of home grown talent not panning out the way most had hoped, and a few acquisitions that are of little to no consequence. The 2013 Spring Training not withstanding, Dom Brown has been a bust. He was once the most highly touted prospect in all of baseball, but he looked like he did not belong on the Major League level last year. John Mayberry will show flashes of brilliance but at this point in his career it is hard to believe he will ever show the consistency necessary to play every day in the show.

Then comes the contracts Ruben has doled out. Most of the big time salary guys on the Phillies I’m not too worried about, but if Ryan Howard does not have a comeback player of the year type season his contract will be seen as an albatross. He already had a down year in the contract's first year in 2011 and 2012 was a wash. This year will go very far in seeing just how bad the 5 year $125 million extension Howard signed is. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels both signed contracts for over $100 as well but my stomach doesn’t feel too queasy when I think about those yet. Amaro went out on a limb and gave Jonathan Papelbon the richest reliever contract in MLB history. Pap signed for 4 years and $50 million. That kind of money is hard to justify for a reliever but if Papelbon can keep performing at an All-Star level the deal will be considered a success. Thankfully, Jimmy Rollins did not insist on a 4 year deal and Amaro got him signed for 3 years and $33 million.  Rollins performed well enough to justify that money last year, which is nice.

Looking forward, the perception of Amaro’s tenure, like most Phillies on this roster, can shift severely this year. If the additions of the projected every day players Ben Revere (centerfield) and proven veteran Michael Young (3^rd base) prove to be beneficial then Amaro can go from questionable to hero once again. Delmon Young showing up and playing well would also aid in believing in Amaro’s judgement and vision for the future.

I feel like I've ended all of these pre-season blogs the same way, but it only makes sense. We'll have to wait and see. I think Bart Scott said it best when it comes to how I feel about opening day.

The Right Attitude

I can't speak as an insider, but if I had to venture a guess at the two most respected men on the Phillies roster right now I'd start with Roy Halladay and end with Chase Utley. Maybe Jonathan Papelbon is looking for someone boisterous and outspoken when it comes to leadership, but that's not what I'm looking for per se.

I'm looking for athletes like Chase Utley and Roy Halladay. Athletes that lead by example, not by shooting their mouth off to reporters when things aren't quite going their way. Halladay has long been notorious for his incredibly intense regimen, be it in spring training, between starts, or off season workouts. Roy Halladay is going to work harder than the next guy because it seems like he wants to win more than the next guy. For over a decade it has paid Hall of Fame like dividends.

I've been watching Chase Utley play (when he can) every summer for 8 years straight. You don't need to be as avid a fan as I am to understand that Chase is an intense guy. Watch the Phillies for a week straight and you'll know that Chase Utley is giving it everything he's got on the diamond. He doesn’t need to run out every ground ball to second base like he just laid down a drag bunt, but he does. He doesn’t need to focus on the opposing pitcher at all times to pick up any extra tidbit of information that may help him when he steps into the batter’s box, but he does. He doesn’t need to fly into second base with no regard for his body every time he has the chance to break up a double play, but he does. He goes the extra mile and that is what has endeared him to so many Phillies fans. This town loves a winner, but even more so they love somebody who plays every game like it’s their last. Why do you think Allen Iverson was so popular here for a decade? Utley gives it that extra effort at all times, and it does not go unappreciated by Philadelphians.

It is clear to me that these two have the right attitude when it comes to their approach to playing baseball. If a legal advantage exists, they are taking it. These two men have been able to lead by example their entire careers, and for most of Chase’s that has translated into playoff wins.

After injury plagued 2012 seasons, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay find themselves in the same boat for several reasons. They are both in the last year under contract for the Phillies. They both were not capable of competing at the level they are accustomed to last year. Halladay is a Hall of Famer and Utley is a perennial All-Star, so neither has much to prove to anyone. Except that you get the feeling with these two that they have plenty to prove to themselves and their teammates.

Both Utley and Halladay played approximately half the season last year, but it was clear the magic they used to possess had disappeared. Doc never seemed sharp when he took the mound. His control and velocity were not near what they once were and it showed. He constantly looked flustered on the mound and never went as deep into games as he used to. I’m not going as far as saying Utley looked like a shell of his former self, but he certainly did not have the pop in his bat that he showed in his prime. He seemed to be pulling off the ball and popping out to left field with far too much regularity. I got real tired of seeing the ball go straight up and Chase’s head go straight down as he took off for first base knowing that he just wasted another at bat.

Last year Halladay had a shoulder issue. For the last two years, Utley’s knees cooperated just a bit better than Andrew Bynum’s. For all intents and purposes they have been healthy and playing so far this spring. Even if they are healthy, Hallday will be 36 before the summer starts and Utley is 34. Except for that strange occurrence from about 1995-2005 most players' performance declines when they reach their mid-30s. It remains to be seen if Halladay and Utley have enough left in the tank to make the Phillies a playoff team once again, but one thing is for sure, it will not be for a lack of effort.


Spring Training Update –

Well, cross your fingers but the Big Piece is swingin’ a big stick early on ladies and gentlemen. Ryan Howard has been playing almost every spring training game and is currently batting .333. He is tied for the Spring lead with 4 home runs and is second with 12 RBI in 12 games. Two of the four home runs were off left handed pitching. If that sentence doesn’t bring a smile to your face you’re not a true Phillies fan.

The biggest and most pleasant surprise of Spring Training has been the play of Dom Brown. I keep reading articles and tweets from Phillies writers that say he has been great in the field and his numbers from the plate are outstanding. In 37 at bats he has socked three home runs and has splits of .423/.523/.730. He has all but locked up the spot as opening day right fielder.

Delmon Young is the possible platoon with Brown in right field but he has not done much to endear himself to his new fans so far this spring. Young, who has a similar build to Charles Barkley before the Weight Watchers, said he was none too anxious to get on to the field when asked if he was upset he was missing spring training. He said it was too cold. He’s currently recovering from ankle surgery and should be back by April.

The Leadoff Man

Just taking a look at Jimmy Rollins Baseball-Reference page will not tell you nearly enough about the constant that is Jimmy Rollins. He is entering his 13^th full season as the opening day shortstop in Philadelphia. When you have been around for that long the numbers start to pile up. The best way to describe him is consistently above average. He has never been a superstar despite the fact that he has more MVPs than Derek Jeter. Things came together for Rollins in 2007, but other than that year he’s just been above average with remarkable consistency.

For the vast majority of his 1792 games played he has been the leadoff hitter. The prototypical leadoff hitter is scrappy. The prototypical leadoff hitter will make a pitcher work to get him out. The prototypical leadoff hitter should be cerebral at the plate, almost thinking his way on base. Think Lenny Dykstra in 1993. Lenny led the NL in walks in ‘93 and was on base 42 percent of the time. Jimmy Rollins is not a prototypical leadoff hitter.

Dykstra never posted an on base percentage less than .353 for the Phillies and was above .387 in four of six seasons. Rollins' career high in on base percentage was .349 in 2008. He did not even crack .350 in his MVP 2007 season. Rollins’ career on base percentage is .328 and he posted a dismal .316 last season. Dykstra could probably walk out of prison right now and crack .300.

But you know what? It flat out didn’t matter that Jimmy did not get on base as much as you would like him to. The intangibles he brought to the table tipped the scales heavily back into his favor. He is a shortstop that will make every single routine play without fail. He hits Ryan Howard in the neck with any throw it seems. He has lost some of his range but he is still capable of making the jaw dropping plays Phillies’ fans have almost taken for granted for over a decade. He has racked up four gold gloves including another one this past year. His defense may be the best of the five tools Rollins possesses.

What most people will remember about Jimmy Rollins’ Philadelphia tenure though is the aplomb with which he carried himself. The Phils were knocking loudly on the playoff door in 2005 when he carried a 36 game hitting streak into the next season (It ended at 38 the next April). Obviously, he did not shy away from the first real pressure month he every played. No one will forget his “We’re the team to beat,” comment at the start of the 2007 season. The Mets had shellacked the division in 2006 and the Phils fell just short of the Wild Card. Well, Rollins went out and put up by far the best season of his career. His play in the 2008 playoff run coupled with one of the most clutch hits you will ever see in the 2009 NLCS should have cemented him as untouchable.

But it’s weird, if you ask almost any Phillies fan whom their favorite player is you might hear “Jimmy Rollins” one out of 20. And that’s being generous. He does not have the clout like so many other players on this team despite the fact that he has been here by far the longest, basically double most of the core talent that has carried the team to five NL East titles and of course the World Series championship. He should be in the pantheon of Philadelphia sports and infallible like Brian Dawkins. Still, you get the feeling he is just a step above Donovan McNabb status in the city he calls home.

Fans are quick to turn on him, myself included. It’s because he is unwilling to change his all or nothing approach at the plate. For the first 13 years, Rollins got by on everything that has just been mentioned. He got hits (2024), clutch hits. He stole tons of bases (403). He showed pop from both sides of the plate (193 HR). Jimmy Rollins has done it all for the Phillies, but one of two things will need to happen for him to stay in the leadoff spot for the entire season.

First, he will need to be more selective at the plate. Last year Rollins enjoyed getting himself out, or so it seemed. He just did not show enough discipline early in at-bats. To borrow yet another Major League reference, Charlie Manuel needs to institute a Willie Mays Hayes type situation with Rollins when it comes to popping the ball up. Every time Rollins pops a ball up in the infield he should need to do 20 push ups. This would extend to 40 push ups, if he popped up on the first or second pitch as Rollins is wont to do. If he could work on that propensity, and build on the career high (62) in walks he had last year he could potentially continue to wreak havoc on the base baths. After all, he smacked a more than respectable 23 home runs from the plate last year.

Second, the Phils just need to win. If they are winning ball games and Rollins is not preventing them from doing so, it is hard to imagine Charlie yanking him out of the spot Rollins has earned.  Rollins prospects this season, like so many other Phillies, seem to be swinging on a hinge. It can go either way, hopefully it will be fun to watch at least.

The Missing Piece

During this entire Philadelphia Phillies run of dominance, it has been no secret to most that know me that Ryan Howard is my favorite player. I have been an ardent follower, supporter, admirer, and most of the time lately, defender of The Big Piece. When Scott Rolen left town there was a void in the Phillies lineup in my opinion. Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu were not providing me with enough excitement in the middle of the lineup; not enough wins for that matter either. Rolen’s at bats I savored. I studied everything about them. For a season or two there was a void.

Enter Ryan Howard. He became the new “it guy” almost immediately. In his rookie season he only played 88 games. He swatted 22 home runs, knocked in 63, and hit .288. He played the second half of that season and seemed to get every big hit the Phillies needed. Almost willing them to the playoffs. His clutch hitting that year gave him the nod for Rookie of the Year despite barely playing more than half the season.

Then came 2006. Ryan Howard’s MVP campaign that year has become mythical lure in my mind. He was the most destructive, feared, and powerful hitter I ever got to watch play on a daily basis. He won the Home Run Derby (without being selected as an All-Star) and then just blistered his way through the next two months. I watched in awe. In August he hit 14 home runs and had 41 RBI in 29 games. Labor Day weekend he hit three home runs in his first three at bats against Tim Hudson and the Braves. By September nobody wanted to pitch to him. He racked up 36 walks, 16 intentional, in the last month of the season but still managed to hit 9 home runs to leave him with a Phillies team record 58. He ended the season with career highs in just about every category. Numbers he will never touch again.

Howard continued to be a force in the cleanup spot from 2007 to 2009. His power numbers were in the top 3 in the league each of those years.

2006: 58* HR 149* RBI (159 games)

2007: 47 HR 136 RBI (144 games)

2008: 48* HR 146* RBI (162 games)

2009: 45 HR 141* RBI (160 games)

* Led the NL

Obviously, he struck out a ton during all of these years. But every fan was willing to look past that with those gargantuan numbers. You know who else was willing to look past it? Ruben Amaro Jr. A month into the 2010 season, at age 30, The Big Piece inked a 5 year contract extension worth $125 million that would begin in 2011. The only problem is, his numbers have steadily declined from his prime of 2006-2009.

2010: 31 HR 108 RBI (143 games)

2011: 33 HR 116 RBI (152 games)

2012: 14 HR 56 RBI (71 games)

Another category that is hugely important when defining the impact of a slugger on a baseball team is OPS. OPS is the combination of on base percentage and slugging percentage. Basically, is this guy getting on base? And if so, is he getting extra base hits when he does it? Well, The Big Piece has fallen on hard times lately when combining those two stats for OPS. Last year he finished at a dismal .718 OPS.

OPS is one of the many sabermetric stats that baseball analysts have become borderline obsessed with. They really started to catch on with “Moneyball” in Oakland when employed by their GM Billy Beane. They turned it into a movie starring Brad Pitt and this kid, it wasn’t half bad. Anyway, I have never really come to fully embrace the sabermetric revolution dedicated to graphs, advanced stats, and a cold calculating approach to how to win a game that has been around for 150 years.

Stats are stats and facts are facts (as cliché as it gets right here) but sometimes they don’t tell the entire story. In my opinion baseball is more than just numbers, it has a soul. It has something that you don’t see in an excel spreadsheet. It has charisma. It has something indescribable that allows fans like me to get caught up in grown men playing a little kid’s game for money you can’t even fathom.

I’m of the opinion that that’s where Ryan Howard comes in. He has that charisma in spades, or he had it at least. When Ryan Howard comes up to the plate you just never know what’s going to happen and that’s what makes it so exciting. He was and still can be a helluva a ballplayer capable of great things. However, it remains to be seen if he can still perform at a level close to being worth the $105 million left on his contract.

We’re about to get real heavy into the Major League references here, so hopefully you can stay with me.

I don’t understand why Ryan Howard can’t lay off low and away sliders from left handed pitching. He reminds me of Pedro Cerrano “Straight ball I like very much, curve ball not so much.” Can someone explain to me why he continues to flail away at pitches that he has no business swinging at? Does he not understand that lefties are not going to throw him fastballs anywhere near the plate? What would be the point? He’s going to swing at the down and away breaking balls anyway. He swings fastball and hopes. That’s not a very good strategy.

In the beginning of Major League, Rick Vaughn (Charlie Sheen) had a cannon for an arm but lacked control. His manager, Lou Brown, quickly realized that Rick had a vision problem. He could not even see across the room. Rick got a spiffy new pair of glasses and everything fell into place for him. Now, a lot of hitting at the major league level is dependent upon eye site. Curve balls, sliders, and any ball that does not go straight will have a distinctly different spin on it than a fastball. Hitters identify this spin and can react better to what the pitch is going to be.  This is why you always hear Wheels say that hitters will struggle when there are shadows between the mound and home plate because its tough to pick up the spin. So is this possibly Ryan Howard’s problem? Can he not see the spin on the ball and identify pitches he should not be swinging at? I’m sure I’m not the only person to come up with this theory, but something is missing.

Late in Major League 2, Jake Taylor (Tom Berenger) pays a visit to Rick Vaughn. Rick had been scuffling with his game and his identity all season. Taylor took it upon himself to go see his friend and tell him in so many words to “Get his sh_t  together” for the sake of the team. Everyone was counting on him.

The Phils’ closer, Jonathan Papelbon took it upon himself to say that he had not seen much leadership in the clubhouse during his Phillies' tenure. Well, maybe its time for Chase or Jimmy to go have that same talk with Ryan. He literally needs to “Get his sh_t together” for the sake of the team. That would show some leadership.

The 2013 season can be the turning point in quite a few careers on the Phillies roster, maybe none more than Howard. They employ 6 guys that make more than $15 million per season. You can argue that only one is still in their prime. If Ryan Howard does not come up with a throwback vintage monster season, the odds of this contract he signed not being a total catastrophe are going to skyrocket. Not only that, the Phillies just won’t be any good without him mashing the ball out of the ballpark. So yeah, there is a lot riding on his broad shoulders this season. Let’s hope he’s ready.


I leave with you this.. "I got a hunch he's due.."

Welcome Back.. 2013 Phillies' Storylines

Hello every one, I'd like to welcome all you Wahoo-Maniacs to another exciting season of Indi- Excuse me - Hello every one, I'd like to welcome all of you to another roller-coaster Philadelphia Phillies baseball season!

As many of you have realized, the Phillies' pitchers and catchers reported to spring training in Clearwater last week. The Phils are still over a month away from starting their 2013 season but I figured why not get things started with a bit of a new format to gear up for what figures to be an interesting season. The Sixers and Flyers are certainly not satisfying most people's hunger for exciting Philly sports these days.

My goal for the new format is to put out at least one mini blog per week chronicling one of the Phillies' numerous story lines. When I start thinking about what this season is going to be like there are so many "ifs" and giant glaring question marks. Since that is the case I thought it would be hard to put together a comprehensive season preview and take an in depth look at all of the different trials and tribulations this team will no doubt have to endure over the next eight months. I've put together a list, in no particular order, for all things Phillies that I'd like to go over with my loyal readers. Feel free to post comments or suggestions about what you'd like to hear about most.

Charlie Manuel - Manager

Ryan Howard - Slugger

Jimmy Rollins - Catalyst

Chase Utley - Nails

Roy Halladay - Is the Doctor in?

Ruben Amaro - Downward trending GM

Ben Revere - Speedster

Cliff Lee - Enigma

Cole Hamels - Hollywood

The Platoon - Dom Brown, Darren Ruf, John Mayberry, Delmon Young

Chooch - Juicing

The Competition - Lots of it

As you can see, the Phillies are not exactly short on story lines as pretty much every topic above could warrant in depth analysis and prognostication.

Charlie Manuel

It is hard to place a large burden of last season's undoing on the amiable West Virginian. Cholly played the hand he was dealt last year. That hand included his best two position players playing a combined 154 games and only 11 before the All-Star break when the Phillies had all but played themselves out of contention. He also got dealt a banged up Ace in Roy Halladay. Halladay had not missed a start and had been brilliant for his two seasons with the Phillies. When he did come back, it was clear he was either not the same pitcher or not quite 100% (here's to hoping its the latter). More injuries and lackluster play from players that were counted on to do more contributed to an 81-81 season for a team with the second highest payroll in baseball.

Having said all that, some blame can certainly land on his 6 foot 4 250 pound frame. The decisions that always seemed to work out for Charlie in the past did not seem to come up roses last year. His bullpen tactics were questionable. He is clearly afraid and/or not willing to use Jonathan Papelbon in anything but a save situation. The guy is making $50 over 4 years, let's make it count. He never seemed to come up with a lineup that produced consistently despite constant tinkering.

My two biggest issues with Charlie, however, could make or break this season for the Phillies.

1. Jimmy Rollins must be removed from the leadoff spot if he can't get on base more than Ben Revere.

Jimmy Rollins has never been the prototypical leadoff guy. I could get into the stats right now, but we'll save that for the Jimmy Rollins post. Charlie can no longer be reluctant to remove Jimmy from the leadoff spot. The Phillies do not have another season to waste with Jimmy popping up the second pitch of the game forty times this year. I have absolutely no issue with Jimmy starting the season batting in the 1 spot, but if the Phillies are not winning and he is not producing come Mid-May; push better start coming to shove Charlie Manuel for a better option at leadoff.

2. The Phillies' hitters must have a more disciplined approach at the plate and that has to start with him.

When the Phillies went down (swinging at least) in the 2011 NLDS to the Cardinals it was evident that their approach at the plate was lame at best. They did not work counts. They did not take advantage of hitter's counts (which they saw few of because of the last sentence). They lacked discipline by swinging at balls instead of strikes.

All of that was supposed to change for the 2012 season but I just saw more of the same. What are these guys doing when they aren't actually playing baseball? Are they eating, drinking, sleeping and living for baseball? If they are they better all be studying film on their iPads for hours on end. If I'm Ryan Howard and I'm due $25 million each year for the next four years and my name shows up as Number 3 on the list of worst contracts in baseball I'm doing everything in my power to prove the naysayers wrong, not to mention win another title and cement a Hall of Fame legacy. I'm doing everything in my power to figure out how to stay above .250 against left handed pitching. If I'm any hitter on this team I want to be more prepared than whom ever I am playing against when it comes to pitchers' tendencies. This type of approach must be employed for the Phillies to be a winning ball club. That starts with Charlie Manuel telling these guys what needs to be done.

Charlie Manuel has always been the "hitting" manager. He was the hitting coach in Cleveland when Jim Thome, Albert Belle, and Kenny Lofton were killing the ball at the Jake. He values hitting more (it seems), so he needs to start changing the mindset and approach of some of the Phillies most important hitters in order to breed more success at the plate.

If Charlie can handle those two situations correctly, and about 40 other things fall into place, the Phillies could be taking home their 6th division title in 7 years.

Until next time folks..

Andy Reid and the Eagles

In my mind, this week (weak) sealed it.  While my confidence was certainly wavering after the past 22 games of The Michael Vick Era, for some reason I was still clinging to some hope that Andy would “do better” after he left us with that hollow line week after week after week.

As I really sit down and think about what I want to write about the man, Andy Reid, from his coaching abilities and disabilities to his ridiculous relationship with the relentlessly passionate Philadelphia Eagles fan base (and of course the rabid media), it's hard to even know where to begin. The relationship has gone back so long. Perhaps, that is why I was always quick to give him the benefit of the doubt. He took us to sustained goodness (never got the greatness part) and every season was filled with hopeful potential.

This season, and last season for that matter, is no different as far as the aspirations of the football team and the city. Basically, even if the Eagles get to the Super Bowl that would not be enough; this city would have plenty to complain about if our team once again failed to win the big one under Reid. Well, while they are certainly not out of it, its hard to imagine this season’s record not ending up somewhere around last season’s record given the brutal schedule the Eagles are saddled with this year. Eight and Eight. Woefully short of expectations for a team that keeps throwing around absurd talk before seasons because “they look good on paper.”

Mike Vick’s mention that this team had what it takes to be a dynasty and Vince Young’s infamous Dream Team comment are laughable. This team can’t get out of their own way enough to win games with a 10 point lead and less than 6 minutes to go with the ball.  At this point, I’m of the opinion that Andy Reid is the man that is standing in their way.

It didn’t used to be this way with Andy. He used to surround himself with top notch personnel, many of whom have gone on to bigger and sometimes better things. John Harbaugh, Brad Childress, Ron Rivera, and Steve Spagnuolo are just a few that have gone on to head coaching jobs. Things really haven’t been the same since the great Jim Johnson passed.

Sean McDermott was a logical successor to Johnson, but Reid was quick to axe McDermott which meant Andy was on the hook to find the Eagles next defensive coordinator.  The decision he made will ultimately lead to his demise as the head ball coach of the Eagles.

For years Andy has fancied himself the smartest guy in the room. For a little while there, he might have been. It has become evident over the past few years that he no longer is. In 2010, he traded up in the first round and I remember everybody thinking that Earl Thomas was heading to Philadelphia. Nope, Andy saw something in Brandon Graham that apparently nobody else did. He picked the defensive end Graham 13^th overall and he has 3.5 sacks in 3 years. Jason Pierre-Paul has 26.5 sacks and went 15^th to division competitor and defending Super Bowl champ New York Giants. Earl Thomas was second team all NFL at safety for the Seahawks last year. The Eagles haven’t had a reliable safety since Brian Dawkins left town 3 years ago.

In 2011 he selected a 26 year-old Canadian offensive lineman named Danny Watkins in the first round. Watkins started 12 games last year but has been an on-again-off-again starter for a bottom 5 in the league offensive line unit that has been devastated by injuries this year. Nobody saw this pick coming at the time. Andy thinks he knows something that nobody else does, but it’s turning out that he doesn’t.

It’s safe to say these high picks weren’t working out like some draft steals he was able to pull off in Brian Westbrook and Trent Cole. Somewhere along the way, Andy lost his mojo.

Also in 2011, Andy made the decision to hire his own offensive line coach, Juan Castillo, as the architect of the Eagles defense. The audacity of this decision is unparalleled. The decision to hire Castillo was disrespectful. It was disrespectful to legitimately experienced candidates who he decided weren’t good enough for his team. It was disrespectful to his owner, Jeff Lurie, who finally came out publicly to say he was confused with the move to appoint Castillo. It was disrespectful to a defense that now had to take orders from a virtual novice when it came to game planning and scheming from the defensive side of the football. This isn’t Friday night in Texas. Everybody in the NFL is the smartest in the world at what they do. What made Reid think the Castillo decision could ever work? Arrogance is the first word that comes to my mind as the answer to that question.

The Eagles fell apart almost immediately last season. It was a combination of things that all reflected poorly upon Reid that contributed to a team that began the season 4-8. A big waving finger was pointing at Juan Castillo as a main reason for the early season struggles. Nevertheless, Andy trotted Juan out as the defensive coordinator again for the 2012 season. Turnovers and discipline were the major issues of a team that was 3-3 entering the bye week. It certainly wasn’t a defense that kept the team in every game, save one, while dealing with an offense that was 31^st in the league in points and continually placed it in a hole by committing a mind-boggling amount of turnovers.

After two straight blown 4^th quarter leads Andy broke. He needed a scapegoat. He needed a pressure release. The media was ready to eat him alive so he created a diversion in hopes of saving his team, his season, and his job. He fired Juan Castillo and brought in a man with some experience in Todd Boles.

Now, the Eagles came off the bye week at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Nobody is running away with the Wild Cards in the NFC this year so this was not exactly a make or break game, but for every Eagles fan’s sanity, we needed to see the team come out with a much better sense of purpose and urgency then they had been playing with. The exact opposite happened. Matt Ryan and the Falcons picked apart the Eagles defense so bad in the first half (4 scores in 4 possesions) that it elicited ludicrous comments from my friends like, “It looks like they’re taking a dive for Juan.”

It was that bad this past Sunday against the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons. At this point, Reid is throwing darts at the wall trying to come up with something to save his job. It turns out Mike Vick had a magical 10 games in 2010 and never was before and never has been since that caliber quarterback. It turns out Nnamdi Asomugha is just above being a bum (ask Julio Jones if Nnamdi is still considered the best press corner in the league?). It turns out wide 9s can’t register a sack with two maniacs at defensive end. It turns out that having a top three running back doesn’t mean your offense is any good.  Right now Andy is like George Clooney clinging to life in the 25 foot waves in The Perfect Storm. You know this ship is going down, you’re just not sure when yet. (This has the be the first and last Clooney-Reid comparison ever made.)

So after all of these gut-wrenching games that Eagles fans have to endure, Reid gets his chance to explain himself. He gets his chance to break down what the Eagles did wrong, and why it happened, and what he’s going to do to fix it. Except that never happens. Every week the slimming down walrus lookalike saunters up to the podium as if it’s the guillotine. Answering to the media and the fans is clearly an obligation to Andy Reid that he feels he is above.

You’d think after more than a decade in Philadelphia he’d realize that his demeanor is not exactly going to endear himself to the blue-collar fans of the Philadelphia Eagles. After any loss, every Andy Reid press conference goes the exact same way.

“I’ve got to do a better job of putting players in position to make plays.”

*Deep sigh*

“In hindsight, that may have been a better option.”

*Throat clear, a look of disdain, and another deep sigh*

“I’ve got to do better, we’ve got to do better.”

Normally, I wouldn’t mind these answers so much. It’s standard boilerplate NFL coach talk for basically telling you to, "Go f*&@ yourself, I'm busy and this is taking up my time." They all do it. But what really grinds my gears is that every single week we see Andy Reid’s football teams come out and make the same mental mistakes without fail.

Somebody is always good for a personal foul not having to do with an actual play.

Somebody is always good for a fumble at the worst possible time.

Andy is good for an ill-advised challenge once every two games.

For 13 years now it seems, Andy has screwed up calling timeouts. The Eagles have to have the highest rate of calling a time out in the first 5 minutes of a half of any team in the league. Why not instruct Vick to take a 5 yard penalty on 1^st and 10 with 12 minutes to go in the 3^rd quarter instead of wasting a time out? Time-out calling seems like common sense, but for years Andy has screwed up this seemingly simple detail of being a head coach.

All of these things I mention are related directly to coaching. They are not things affected by talent. They aren’t schemes and plays. They are simply a reflection of a coach who is not getting it done. That’s why I’m tired of the false promises of a coach who’s days are numbered in the City of Brotherly Love.