The Missing Piece

During this entire Philadelphia Phillies run of dominance, it has been no secret to most that know me that Ryan Howard is my favorite player. I have been an ardent follower, supporter, admirer, and most of the time lately, defender of The Big Piece. When Scott Rolen left town there was a void in the Phillies lineup in my opinion. Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu were not providing me with enough excitement in the middle of the lineup; not enough wins for that matter either. Rolen’s at bats I savored. I studied everything about them. For a season or two there was a void.

Enter Ryan Howard. He became the new “it guy” almost immediately. In his rookie season he only played 88 games. He swatted 22 home runs, knocked in 63, and hit .288. He played the second half of that season and seemed to get every big hit the Phillies needed. Almost willing them to the playoffs. His clutch hitting that year gave him the nod for Rookie of the Year despite barely playing more than half the season.

Then came 2006. Ryan Howard’s MVP campaign that year has become mythical lure in my mind. He was the most destructive, feared, and powerful hitter I ever got to watch play on a daily basis. He won the Home Run Derby (without being selected as an All-Star) and then just blistered his way through the next two months. I watched in awe. In August he hit 14 home runs and had 41 RBI in 29 games. Labor Day weekend he hit three home runs in his first three at bats against Tim Hudson and the Braves. By September nobody wanted to pitch to him. He racked up 36 walks, 16 intentional, in the last month of the season but still managed to hit 9 home runs to leave him with a Phillies team record 58. He ended the season with career highs in just about every category. Numbers he will never touch again.

Howard continued to be a force in the cleanup spot from 2007 to 2009. His power numbers were in the top 3 in the league each of those years.

2006: 58* HR 149* RBI (159 games)

2007: 47 HR 136 RBI (144 games)

2008: 48* HR 146* RBI (162 games)

2009: 45 HR 141* RBI (160 games)

* Led the NL

Obviously, he struck out a ton during all of these years. But every fan was willing to look past that with those gargantuan numbers. You know who else was willing to look past it? Ruben Amaro Jr. A month into the 2010 season, at age 30, The Big Piece inked a 5 year contract extension worth $125 million that would begin in 2011. The only problem is, his numbers have steadily declined from his prime of 2006-2009.

2010: 31 HR 108 RBI (143 games)

2011: 33 HR 116 RBI (152 games)

2012: 14 HR 56 RBI (71 games)

Another category that is hugely important when defining the impact of a slugger on a baseball team is OPS. OPS is the combination of on base percentage and slugging percentage. Basically, is this guy getting on base? And if so, is he getting extra base hits when he does it? Well, The Big Piece has fallen on hard times lately when combining those two stats for OPS. Last year he finished at a dismal .718 OPS.

OPS is one of the many sabermetric stats that baseball analysts have become borderline obsessed with. They really started to catch on with “Moneyball” in Oakland when employed by their GM Billy Beane. They turned it into a movie starring Brad Pitt and this kid, it wasn’t half bad. Anyway, I have never really come to fully embrace the sabermetric revolution dedicated to graphs, advanced stats, and a cold calculating approach to how to win a game that has been around for 150 years.

Stats are stats and facts are facts (as cliché as it gets right here) but sometimes they don’t tell the entire story. In my opinion baseball is more than just numbers, it has a soul. It has something that you don’t see in an excel spreadsheet. It has charisma. It has something indescribable that allows fans like me to get caught up in grown men playing a little kid’s game for money you can’t even fathom.

I’m of the opinion that that’s where Ryan Howard comes in. He has that charisma in spades, or he had it at least. When Ryan Howard comes up to the plate you just never know what’s going to happen and that’s what makes it so exciting. He was and still can be a helluva a ballplayer capable of great things. However, it remains to be seen if he can still perform at a level close to being worth the $105 million left on his contract.

We’re about to get real heavy into the Major League references here, so hopefully you can stay with me.

I don’t understand why Ryan Howard can’t lay off low and away sliders from left handed pitching. He reminds me of Pedro Cerrano “Straight ball I like very much, curve ball not so much.” Can someone explain to me why he continues to flail away at pitches that he has no business swinging at? Does he not understand that lefties are not going to throw him fastballs anywhere near the plate? What would be the point? He’s going to swing at the down and away breaking balls anyway. He swings fastball and hopes. That’s not a very good strategy.

In the beginning of Major League, Rick Vaughn (Charlie Sheen) had a cannon for an arm but lacked control. His manager, Lou Brown, quickly realized that Rick had a vision problem. He could not even see across the room. Rick got a spiffy new pair of glasses and everything fell into place for him. Now, a lot of hitting at the major league level is dependent upon eye site. Curve balls, sliders, and any ball that does not go straight will have a distinctly different spin on it than a fastball. Hitters identify this spin and can react better to what the pitch is going to be.  This is why you always hear Wheels say that hitters will struggle when there are shadows between the mound and home plate because its tough to pick up the spin. So is this possibly Ryan Howard’s problem? Can he not see the spin on the ball and identify pitches he should not be swinging at? I’m sure I’m not the only person to come up with this theory, but something is missing.

Late in Major League 2, Jake Taylor (Tom Berenger) pays a visit to Rick Vaughn. Rick had been scuffling with his game and his identity all season. Taylor took it upon himself to go see his friend and tell him in so many words to “Get his sh_t  together” for the sake of the team. Everyone was counting on him.

The Phils’ closer, Jonathan Papelbon took it upon himself to say that he had not seen much leadership in the clubhouse during his Phillies' tenure. Well, maybe its time for Chase or Jimmy to go have that same talk with Ryan. He literally needs to “Get his sh_t together” for the sake of the team. That would show some leadership.

The 2013 season can be the turning point in quite a few careers on the Phillies roster, maybe none more than Howard. They employ 6 guys that make more than $15 million per season. You can argue that only one is still in their prime. If Ryan Howard does not come up with a throwback vintage monster season, the odds of this contract he signed not being a total catastrophe are going to skyrocket. Not only that, the Phillies just won’t be any good without him mashing the ball out of the ballpark. So yeah, there is a lot riding on his broad shoulders this season. Let’s hope he’s ready.


I leave with you this.. "I got a hunch he's due.."