Odoobs, He's a Rule 5 guy. |
The
Phillies just finished a 10 game road trip, which included a 4 game losing
streak, with a 5-5 record. They managed to take two of three from the putrid
Braves and put a halt to the Marlins hot streak with late inning clutch
hitting. A blown save in St. Louis kept the Phils from splitting the four game
set in the Show Me State.
They’ve
played 16 of their last 19 on the road and during that stretch their record
improved from 7-9 to 20-15. These road warriors have played more games than any
Major League team away from their home park and still have the 4th
best record in the NL to show for it. We’re nearing the quarter point of the
season and the Phils are currently holding on to a Wild Card spot (yes, it’s
too early to even discuss really). So their somewhat sustained success begs the
question: Are these young kids for real or not?
Well, I
don’t want to throw cold water on my readers but most of the data and stats we
see coming from this bunch would suggest that they are not. Despite having a
record that sits 5 games above .500, these Phils have a -27 run differential.
If you’re reading this you probably know that the Phililes have been borderline
unstoppable in one-run games this season.
They have played 15 one-run games and hold a 12-3 record in those
contests. When they win, they win small, when they lose, they lose big.
Let’s add some historical context
for the kind of ball the Phils are playing. This overachieving team is
currently averaging 3.29 runs per game. If that sounds like a small number, it’s
because it is. At that pace, the Phils would score 533 runs this year. In the
last 10 years, only two teams averaged less than that for a season. The 2013
Miami Marlins (62-100) and 2010 Seattle Mariners (61-101) both scored on
average 3.17 runs per game. Since the second wild card was added in 2012 (4 seasons),
the ten teams to make the postseason each year have combined to average 4.46
runs per game. Even further, not one of
the playoff teams from the past four years has ended the season with a negative
run differential. Just from a layman’s
perspective, it’s hard to win more games than you lose over a 162 game season and
wind up with less runs scored than your opponents. These current Philies are
defying logic.
The smoke and mirrors the Phillies
are employing revolve around a precocious pitching staff performing at a level
none of us thought possible. The staff,
led by Aaron Nola, have done a tremendous job of limiting base runners and
striking out opposing batters. The Phils have given up the third fewest walks
and limited opponents to a .236 batting average, good enough for 4th
in the NL. Those stats combined have given the Phils’ arms the third best WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) in the NL at 1.19. The biggest key to the success of the starters
as well as a surprisingly impressive bullpen have been the strikeouts. All
season long the Phils had led the NL in strikeouts until the Nationals Max
Scherzer whiffed 20 Tigers this week. As it stands they are second to the
Nationals in total Ks, 315 to 316, and K/9 at 9.09 to the Nats 9.10.
In 2015, the Phils staff ranked 12th
in the NL in strikeouts, 14th
in batting average allowed (.280 – yikes!), 14th in strikeouts per 9
innings, and 14th in WHIP. The NL has 15 teams and the Rockies were
the only team worse than them in several categories and they play 81 games in
the thin air at Coors Field. It’s been clear that the Phils early turnaround
has been pitching driven but when you take a look at last year compared to now
the numbers really are eye-popping.
As far as individual play is
concerned the Phils are playing two, maybe three*, players everyday that
you hope to see still playing every day for them come next season. You have to marvel at
what Odubel Hererra is doing at the plate, though his defense has been a bit shaky
of late. Through 35 games Odoobs is clearly playing at an All-Star caliber
level. His. 339 batting average is 6th in the NL while he ranks 4th
in walks (26, he had 28 all of last year), second in on-base percentage
(.450), 4th in steals (6), and second in pitches per plate appearance (4.50). He’s been the only consistent hitter on the
team and as you can tell by his on base percentage, he always seems to be on
base. Last night, he led off the 10th inning with a one-handed golf swing triple
that allowed him to eventually score the go-ahead run for the Phils 4th
win in 4 extra inning games this season. He finished the game 4-4 with a walk.
Maikel Franco has been up and down
at the plate while continuing to play stellar defense. His inconsistency
clearly comes from his approach and wild free swinging philosophy at the plate.
I can’t recall a guy swinging as violently or haphazardly as Franco since
Vladimir Guererro used to terrorize the Phillies north of the border. The
problem is, Guererro was a one in a billion talent. Franco takes hacks like he’s
trying to hit a 10 run home run, and that’s with nobody on base in a game where the Phils need base runners. Somebody needs to get through to the kid to tone
that swing down and take a cue from Axl Rose and have a little more patience at
the plate (yeaaaahhhh). His 5.4% walk ratio is between bad and awful. Of
course, when he does connect he can send moon shot home runs soaring deep into
the stands. That happens too, but we need to see more consistency out of the
Phils’ best power bat.
Then comes the Big Piece. All he does
is hit home runs. Literally. That is the only thing left that Ryan Howard can
do. Somehow, some way, Howard reached 7 home runs in fewer at bats than he
ever has before in his career. His 8 home runs on the season rank 9th in the NL. For his career, Ryan Howard is 12th
all time with a home run every 15.0 at bats. This season he is ranked 8th
with a home run every 12.8 at bats. Over the past 5 seasons (since the Achilles
injury), Howard has averaged a home run every 21.3 at bats, so it is nice to
see The Big Piece homering at a clip more consistent with his heyday. His
homers have also been mostly of the clutch variety as he has hit a walk-off
home run, accounted for the only run in two separate 1-0 Phillies wins, and put
the Phillies ahead with 5 of the 8 he’s hit.
The Big Piece After a Walk-Off Homer vs the Indians |
So that’s the good news for Howard.
The bad news is legitimately everything else. He is slashing .176 / .243 /
.422. He’s gotten multiple hits in two, count em, two games this season. He is
3 for his last 32 and all three of those hits are home runs. He’s gone 12 games
now without a hit that wasn’t a home run. The best he can possibly be at first
base is below average. He’s a polarizing figure but from all accounts he’s been
a positive influence in the clubhouse and been a professional when sitting
against lefties even though Darin Ruf may be the only 1st baseman in
the Majors worse than him.
In reality, this Phils team
almost certainly is not for real this season but that should not take away from
anything they’ve accomplished during this incredible first month and a half.
The experience these young guys are getting winning ball games while building
and growing together is exactly what the organization needs. I went back and
read my season preview for the 2015 season. That was the most morbid piece I
may have ever written. At the time, it felt like we’d be waiting for the
roaring 20s until the Phils were relevant again. Well, even if the stats don’t quite
add up, the Phils are relevant right now. The chemistry manager Pete Mackanin
has helped foster because he seems to understand the makeup of his young squad
a 1000x better than his hall-of-fame predecessor can only bode well for the
future when more reinforcements can replace the lack of talent currently
sprinkled around the diamond for our Phillies.
They may not actually be for real
right now, but a positive future is coming much sooner than expected. In the
mean time, let’s enjoy the ride this summer as much as we can.
Werth the Watch:
Cole Hamels (Rangers)
W-L: 4-0 (11-1 with Rangers) ERA: 2.95 SO: 45 BB: 17
Chase Utley (playing every day for the Dodgers)
Avg: .296 On Base: .392 Slugging: .454 HR: 2 RBI: 10
Jimmy Rollins (playing 4 out of 5 games for the White Sox)
Avg: .247 On Base: .315 Slugging: .361 HR: 1 RBI: 5
Jayson Werth (playing every day for the Nationals)
Avg: .196 On Base: .258 Slugging: .411 HR: 6 RBI: 19
Shane Victorino - I did a little research. Shane was in spring training with the Cubs and hurt his calf. He is back healthy and playing with their AAA team in Iowa on a minor league contract. You ready for him to win a World Series with 3 different teams?
Is this Heaven?
No, it's Iowa.
*Cameron Rupp
Just when I thought that every ounce of positivity had been drained from the Philly sports landscape, this team goes and gives us a reason to hope again... Or at least a reason to turn off Jeopardy at 7:05. Leicester City won the EPL this year - is the wild card really too much to ask for?
ReplyDeleteDonnie - thanks for reading. Jeopardy likes to go to commercial at 7:05 so it's as good an excuse as any.
DeleteThere are so many cliche's that come to mind when thinking about this team – It's not over until it's over, hope springs eternal, whichever you choose, it's fun to be part of the Philly sports scene again and read something positive for a change.
ReplyDeleteLeicester City won the EPL this year - is the wild card really too much to ask for?
ReplyDeletegoldenslot
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