Thursday, February 28, 2013

The Leadoff Man



Just taking a look at Jimmy Rollins Baseball-Reference page will not tell you nearly enough about the constant that is Jimmy Rollins. He is entering his 13th full season as the opening day shortstop in Philadelphia. When you have been around for that long the numbers start to pile up. The best way to describe him is consistently above average. He has never been a superstar despite the fact that he has more MVPs than Derek Jeter. Things came together for Rollins in 2007, but other than that year he’s just been above average with remarkable consistency.

For the vast majority of his 1792 games played he has been the leadoff hitter. The prototypical leadoff hitter is scrappy. The prototypical leadoff hitter will make a pitcher work to get him out. The prototypical leadoff hitter should be cerebral at the plate, almost thinking his way on base. Think Lenny Dykstra in 1993. Lenny led the NL in walks in ‘93 and was on base 42 percent of the time. Jimmy Rollins is not a prototypical leadoff hitter.

Dykstra never posted an on base percentage less than .353 for the Phillies and was above .387 in four of six seasons. Rollins' career high in on base percentage was .349 in 2008. He did not even crack .350 in his MVP 2007 season. Rollins’ career on base percentage is .328 and he posted a dismal .316 last season. Dykstra could probably walk out of prison right now and crack .300.

But you know what? It flat out didn’t matter that Jimmy did not get on base as much as you would like him to. The intangibles he brought to the table tipped the scales heavily back into his favor. He is a shortstop that will make every single routine play without fail. He hits Ryan Howard in the neck with any throw it seems. He has lost some of his range but he is still capable of making the jaw dropping plays Phillies’ fans have almost taken for granted for over a decade. He has racked up four gold gloves including another one this past year. His defense may be the best of the five tools Rollins possesses.

What most people will remember about Jimmy Rollins’ Philadelphia tenure though is the aplomb with which he carried himself. The Phils were knocking loudly on the playoff door in 2005 when he carried a 36 game hitting streak into the next season (It ended at 38 the next April). Obviously, he did not shy away from the first real pressure month he every played. No one will forget his “We’re the team to beat,” comment at the start of the 2007 season. The Mets had shellacked the division in 2006 and the Phils fell just short of the Wild Card. Well, Rollins went out and put up by far the best season of his career. His play in the 2008 playoff run coupled with one of the most clutch hits you will ever see in the 2009 NLCS should have cemented him as untouchable.

But it’s weird, if you ask almost any Phillies fan whom their favorite player is you might hear “Jimmy Rollins” one out of 20. And that’s being generous. He does not have the clout like so many other players on this team despite the fact that he has been here by far the longest, basically double most of the core talent that has carried the team to five NL East titles and of course the World Series championship. He should be in the pantheon of Philadelphia sports and infallible like Brian Dawkins. Still, you get the feeling he is just a step above Donovan McNabb status in the city he calls home.

Fans are quick to turn on him, myself included. It’s because he is unwilling to change his all or nothing approach at the plate. For the first 13 years, Rollins got by on everything that has just been mentioned. He got hits (2024), clutch hits. He stole tons of bases (403). He showed pop from both sides of the plate (193 HR). Jimmy Rollins has done it all for the Phillies, but one of two things will need to happen for him to stay in the leadoff spot for the entire season.

First, he will need to be more selective at the plate. Last year Rollins enjoyed getting himself out, or so it seemed. He just did not show enough discipline early in at-bats. To borrow yet another Major League reference, Charlie Manuel needs to institute a Willie Mays Hayes type situation with Rollins when it comes to popping the ball up. Every time Rollins pops a ball up in the infield he should need to do 20 push ups. This would extend to 40 push ups, if he popped up on the first or second pitch as Rollins is wont to do. If he could work on that propensity, and build on the career high (62) in walks he had last year he could potentially continue to wreak havoc on the base baths. After all, he smacked a more than respectable 23 home runs from the plate last year.

Second, the Phils just need to win. If they are winning ball games and Rollins is not preventing them from doing so, it is hard to imagine Charlie yanking him out of the spot Rollins has earned.  Rollins prospects this season, like so many other Phillies, seem to be swinging on a hinge. It can go either way, hopefully it will be fun to watch at least.

2 comments:

  1. Great job Alex. I agree with most of what you say, especially your thesis that Jimmy Rollins is largely under-estimated and most certainly under-appreciated. We fans continue to bellyache about his "deficiencies" at the plate, an obsession that blinds us to, and distracts us from, his most valid credential for entry into the Hall of Fame: his defense.

    Let's compare Rollins to the "Wizard", Ozzie Smith, widely touted as the best defensive shortstop in the history of baseball. To make a fair comparision I checked out their nine 150 plus game seasons(conveniently they both had nine). Makes sense to compare them at their best.

    The Wizard had a fielding percentage of .977 over those nine years, while Rollins had an amazing.982--significantly better than God's appointed shortshop!

    Think that's a fluke stat? Then consider that the Wizard had 161 errors during his nine campaigns, for an average of 17.8, whereas Rollins had just 104 errors in a similar timespan, for an astounding average of 11.55, a full six errors fewer than the media-annointed magician of the cowhide!

    In fact, the six's are wild in Rollins' trick deck of cards: he once had an incredibly scant six errors over 155 games in 2009, upstaging the Wizard's best of eight errors in only 150 games. And the Wizard pulled that single-digit rabbit out of the hat just that one time, compared to Rollins accomplishing the feat twice, committing just nine errors in 154 games in 2004. He also had just 7 errors total in 2008 over 132 games and 7 errors in 2011 in 138 games, statistics which the Wizard cannot boast.

    And riddle me this Batman: who had 20 or more errors in each of five seasons? You got it--the Wizard! Nevermind that Rollins never, ever even came close to that dubious distinction, collecting a tally of 14 misplays in three of his years, with 13, 12, 11 and 11 in his others. Meanwhile, the Wizard had 25, 24, 22, 21, and 20 errors in the best years of his career. Still impressive, yes, but hardly Rollins-like legerdemain.

    At this point it's good to remind ourselves that we are comparing Rollins to the WIZARD, the legend of ground balls, the first ballot Hall of Famer, the Wizard of Oz!

    OK, let's juggle a couple more key numbers. The Wizard's best fielding percentage of the nine years was .987, while Rollins' sleight of hand earned him .990 in 2009!

    But most amazing of all is that the Wizard played six of his nine seasons on the splendidly beautiful imperfect natural grass of Citizens Bank Park, contrasted by Ozzie Smith patrolling the fielder-friendly machine perfect asto turf of Gussie Busch's backyard for virtually all of his career.

    No, I made no mistake in the preceding paragraph--it's time we realize that we have been treated for 13 years with a special shortstop who has pulled back the curtain to reveal the real Wizard, that's Jimmmy "the Wizard" Rollins--sans only the cartwheels and backflips!

    Ed Angelo

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ed - I love the research. It puts the defense into a much better perspective. Rollins is not taken for granted by me.

    ReplyDelete