Sunday, April 20, 2014

Salvage Yard

I had been building the narrative for this post for the better part of the past six days. The last week was like a crime scene for the Phillies offense. There was a mountain of evidence and a lot of carnage in those box scores. The Phils entered today's series finale against the Rockies trying to avoid a sweep and trying to score more than one run for the first time since Monday. Yikes.

Then today happened and the Phillies managed to salvage a win as well as some dignity with a solid offensive display.  As opposed to the completely offensive display from the prior four games.

Somehow the dormant Phillies offense showed signs of life. But before we get to today, there are some stats that must be pointed out about the four games the Phillies played before putting up 10 runs (they needed all 10).

The Phillies scored 3 runs in the last 4 games entering Sunday.

The Phillies had 18 hits in the last 4 games, none of them for extra bases.

The Phillies had 4 walks in the last 4 games.


After lauding them for seeming much more patient at the plate through two weeks of the season, they  retreated to their same old tricks. Here are the pitch totals and the amount of pitchers used during these four games. 

115 - 1 - Braves
103 - 1 - Braves
110 - 3 - Rockies
114 - 3 - Rockies

I can't go any further on this topic because it makes my head hurt when I try to comprehend.

Also, you can see from the tweets by  Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) some really outlandish things the Phils managed to accomplish during this four game stretch.

But let's talk about what allowed me to alter the narrative, if ever so slightly. They got off the extra base hit schnide in the first inning with a Jimmy Rollins line drive home run to right field. Jimmy finished the day 3-4 with a walk and 2 RBI. His second run batted in of the game was a clutch two out hit in the bottom of the 8th that gave the Phils some extra insurance that the bullpen obviously cashed in right away. And Jimmy didn't even have the best day at the plate for the Phightins.

The Big Piece delivered today. Ryan Howard went 4-5 with a home run, a triple (You can't teach speed," Larry Andersen quipped), and 3 RBI. Out of the four hits he may have actually only hit one ball on the nose and that was a triple to the left center field gap. Howard's home run was an old-fashioned pop-up that managed to clear the fence in left. The thin air in Colorado aside, every part of Coors Field is deep so it was impressive to see the Piece capable of muscling that ball out of the park when he clearly didn't get all of it.

The offense churned out fifteen hits, including seven for extra bases, but they still only managed to squeeze out a one run victory over a Rockies team that just mashes the ball in their home stadium. Entering the game they were hitting .349 at home and .249 on the road. It's early but telling.

Roberto Hernandez had easily his worst start of the season, giving up six runs in 4+ innings after not allowing more than three earned runs in his first four starts. His ERA went from 3.86 to 5.75. He left the game with the Phils trailing 6-3 but then the offense turned it on to the tune of seven runs over the course of the next three innings. 

Hernandez, as well as the bullpen, did about the worst job you could possibly do sustaining momentum for a team who's offense remembered how to hit after awaking from a coma in the first inning. The Phillies scored in five of nine innings today and Phillies' pitching gave up runs in the bottom half of those innings four out of five times. That's a recipe for disaster. 

 
The usual suspects let the Phillies down yet again. BJ Rosenberg was unable to make it out of the seventh inning even when gifted a double play after back-to-back brilliant plays made by Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Rollins cutting a runner down at home after making a diving stop with the infield in, followed by Utley winning a challenge tagging the Rockies runner with his foot off second base. After this kind of play you figure it might just go your way today.

When Jake Diekman came in and missed his down and away location with an up and down the middle breaking ball that Michael Cuddyer sent into the seats in right tying it at 8-8 you thought, maybe this day isn't going to go your way today. Some how, the offense was resilient and clawed out the much needed win. Jonathan Papelbon came on in the 9th and allowed two men to reach base but he completed his fourth save in a row.

Despite the historically bad stretch the Phils only lost three of the last five games and have to be feeling good about sending Cliff Lee, AJ Burnett, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick to the mound for a four game set with Yasiel Puig and the Dodgers. Here's to late nights this week.


NL East Standings through three weeks of play:

Braves - 12-6
Nationals - 11-8
Mets - 9-9
Marlins - 9-10
Phillies - 8-10



Bringing it back like baking soda - Werth Watch 

Jayson Werth

Avg: .262 OB: 351 Slg: 446 HR: 3 RBI: 11 R: 11 

I'm also going to keep running tabs on several other former Phillies that may be of interest for you stat geeks like me. Let me know if you'd like me to add any one to the list in the comments section.

Shane Victorino

Has yet to play this season. On the shelf with a hamstring for the defending champ Red Sox.

Hunter Pence

Avg: .188 OB: 291 Slg: 290 HR: 1 RBI: 3 R: 9 












Tuesday, April 15, 2014

About Last Night

Dan Uggla hit .179 last year and is currently batting .222


Last night’s Phillies game was one of the more painful games to experience in recent memory. There was a blip of a good feeling early in the game when Ryan Howard connected on an Ervin Santana fastball and sent it over the fence in right center field to give the Phils a 1-0 lead. It was his second in as many games. Even though it was a solo shot, I can tell you that there isn’t a better feeling as a Phillies fan right now than watching Ryan Howard hit a home run. It’s what he’s supposed to do and we took it for granted for so long that we could not get used to the feeling of him not being capable. Here’s to The Big Piece being capable and healthy in 2014.

From there not much happened until the last two innings of the ball game. Second year catcher and already tenured Phillie killer Evan Gattis swatted a 2 run home run off Phillies starter Roberto Hernandez in the 6th inning to take a 2-1 lead. Gattis had three homers against the Phillies last year, and he was their backup catcher! Whether it’s Brian McCann or Gattis it seems like the Braves guy behind the plate will do damage against our Phillies.

So after Mario Hollands got through the 7th inning without allowing a run the Phils desperately needed to keep the game close in order to have a chance against the Braves bullpen that boasted the best ERA in the Majors last year. Job not done. BJ Rosenberg entered the game in the 8th, his 3rd appearance in as many days, and got lit the _____ up! Gattis asked the bartender for another round and got it. This was his second multi-home run game against the Phillies. Ugh. Next up was Dan Uggla and he sent one into Harry The Ks restaurant in left. Not to be outdone, Andrelton Simmons made it back-to-back-to-back jacks (sounds like a Tom Emanski commercial). Rosenberg’s ERA for the game looked like an 8 on it’s side as Larry Bowa undoubtedly said to Sandberg before the Simmons home run ball landed, “I think you can go get him now.”

So the Phillies were completely dead in the water down 5-1 entering the bottom of the 8th against the Braves bullpen and their lefty specialist Luis Avilan. Tony Gwynn Jr, making the most of Ben Revere’s injury, led the inning off with a walk. This is a cardinal sin that way too many relievers commit.  Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley both followed with singles to load the bases for The Big Piece. He struck out looking. No matter, Marlon Byrd sent a two strike low and away pitch through the hole on the right side for a two run single to make the score 5-3 Braves with one out and two men on.

Dom Brown was next up and he picked one hell of a time for his first home run of the season. He sent a scorching line drive out to right field on a 1-0 pitch. All of a sudden the Phillies dropped five quick runs on the Braves and took the lead in the bottom of the 8th for the second game in a row. What a tremendous feeling this was for the few thousand that remained in the ballpark and the dedicated fans still watching.

What a tremendously short lived feeling it was.

I sent my father a text “It’s Pap time” as the 8th inning ended.  Unfortunately for the Phils, Jonny Paps had been used in three straight games and was unavailable to nail down his 4th consecutive save. In came lefty fireballer Jake Diekman, who clearly was not ready for the moment, his first career save opportunity.

As is Phils’ bullpen tradition, Diekman committed the cardinal sin and walked the leadoff man to start the 9th. He did that on four pitches that weren’t close. Next up was the dangerous Freddie Freeman and Chase Utley managed to make his first bad play of the season. Freeman hit a slow chopper to Utley and Chase tried to flip to 2nd for the force but his play was to first for the sure out, safe all around. Heap big trouble. Of course, Diekman then walked Justin Upton to load the bases with one out. There was a wrench in my gut.

Diekman then managed to strike out the obviously dangerous Evan Gattis on three pitches, the last one blew him away at 98 MPH just so he could toy with our emotions a little more. Up stepped the man with the biggest forearms and the worst batting average you’ve ever seen, and Dan Uggla did not miss the meatball of a hanging slider Diekman served up to him. GRAND SLAM. Braves take the lead 9-6 on Uggla’s second home run in as many innings.

That was all she wrote for the Phillies on Mondee night.

The moral of the story is that the Phillies bullpen is not very good (putting it nicely alert!) and it’s being over used because the starters have not made it past the 6th inning in all but two of the games. When the bullpen gets over used then the shaky relievers are not available and the terrible ones have to pitch in key spots. I think Jake Diekman has what it takes talent wise, but his head was not there last night and it cost the Phils dearly.

Hope springs eternal though as constantly banged up set-up man Mike Adams returns to the fold tonight and Cliff Lee is on the bump. Couple that with AJ Burnett still scheduled to make his next start and Cole Hamels being close to a return and the Phils could be looking good going forward. Especially if the offense keeps ticking like it has.






Sunday, April 13, 2014

What Have You Done For Me Lately?




Bashing the ball like the Chase of old



We're 12 games in and life feels a lot better on this late Sunday afternoon than it did as I arrived with my fiancee for Friday night's Phillies - Marlins game at Citizen's Bank Ballpark. Phillies life anyway. 

When we got off the Broad Street line and made the three block walk into a stadium that was a little more than half full, I told Abby the Phillies probably had a 20% chance to score more than two runs tonight. You see, the Phils were coming off a could not have gone worse home opening series sweep at the hands of the Brewers. To make matters worse, the Marlins were sending sophomore sensation, and current reigning NL Rookie of the Year, Jose Fernandez to the mound. Fernandez is as impressive a talent at the ripe age of 21 years old you're going to see. He throws 98 and in two career starts against the Phillies he'd given up 1 run.

That's what made what we witnessed Friday night rather impressive from a team who basically fell apart for three straight days mid-week. Improbably, the Phillies touched up Fernandez for two runs in the first inning with several hard hit balls. I couldn't believe my eyes. With a two run lead early, obviously the Phils played shoddy defense in the top of the second. Jimmy Rollins couldn't deliver a decent throw to AJ Burnett to complete an inning ending 3-6-1 double play. So of course the very next batter, Derek Dietrich, launched a two run home run to tie up the ball game. Standard.

No way they'd get more off of Fernandez. Well, after Jose struck out six in a row in the third and the fourth he didn't get an out in the 5th. Rollins led off with a triple in the gap and then Utley, Howard, and Byrd followed with hard hit singles chasing Fernandez. The Phils didn't look back and the bullpen came through like you wouldn't have thought possible. This included an impressive appearance from Jake Diekman who came into the ball game with the based loaded, one out, and proceeded to strike out the two batters he faced.

Not lost on Friday night's win was a possible injury to AJ Burnett. The man who has made at least 30 starts in six straight seasons will be re-evaluated Monday after he left with a strained groin. Stay tuned but not good news.

From there the Phillies used late game home runs to ensure victory against the Marlins two games in a row. Rollins, batting right-handed, sent a two out solo moon shot down the line in left to end Saturday night's ball game in the 10th inning. Just a few hours ago, Chase Utley continued his (I can't even come up with the adjective, so here are a few that come to mind) brilliant, phenomenal, unbelievable, white-hot play and smoked a two out blast into the seats in right off Marlins lefty David Dunn. Short, compact. That 8th inning tracer put the Phillies up 4-3 and Jonathan Papelbon slammed the door with a perfect 9th. The Phillies bullpen retired all nine batters they faced after Kyle Kendrick battled for six innings. Hard to believe, Harry.



If the question is what have you done for me lately? You feel good about the Phillies.

If the question is how bad are the Phillies capable of being? You get pretty damn scared when you think about the Brewers series.

The Phils left a turd in the punch bowl on Opening Day at the Bank and continued to leave it there until the Brewers left town Thursday. Ryan Braun torched the Phillies all series long, the cheater was awfully impressive. He went yard three times in the series opener, two were three run shots, and busted open Wednesday night's sloppily played ball game with a two run triple in the 8th. Ryan Howard's mobility and glove cost the Phillies dearly in this game. It's hard to believe those two things won't continue to be an issue. Cliff Lee was unable to avoid a soul-crusing home opening sweep on Thursday night. 

Let it be known that the Brewers rolled right over Pittsburgh and swept them as well this weekend. That is nine in a row for the 10-2 Milwaukee Brewers. There's no doubt the Phils got cut in a half by an early season buzz saw.

Let's just ask ourselves; what have you done for me lately?

Sure.

Chase Utley is the MVP of Major League Baseball through two weeks. I'd say this without even looking at the stats, but let's look at the stats for some confirmation.

For starter's he's got 20 hits in 40 at bats. If you can do that math, that's a .500 batting average in a little more than a small sample size. His on base percentage is .585 and he's slugging .875 because of his six doubles and 3 home runs. Those slash numbers are good enough for tops in the majors.

The Phils are 6-4 with him in the lineup and 0-2 when he's out. He missed the first two games of the Brewers series with the flu but didn't miss a beat as he went 7-12 with four extra base hits over the weekend. 

After twelve games it's time to start talking about it I think. It might be a bit premature to say the Phillies have finally started to adapt to a new approach at the plate, but they don't seem to be giving away at bats early in counts. At least not nearly as often as they have for three years straight. 

Don't believe me? Well, the Phils were leading the NL in walks going into today's game in which they walked - 6 times. That's 49 walks on the season (4.25 a game) and they were third  in on base percentage at .343 going into the game. They just have people on base and opportunities to score in seemingly every game. That was not the case under Charlie Manuel for the end of his tenure. It is a trend that will need to continue given the Phils lack of talent in the bullpen and suspect defense. Let's also hope it continues from a sheer watchability perspective because its a lot more fun to watch a team that feels like it always has a chance.

We are seeing this phenomenon the most with Ryan Howard. Howard is guaranteed to be polarizing for the rest of the time he is here and I’m fighting like hell to stay on the positive side. Some days are harder than others. Howard has had a bit of a slow start but indulge me with a comparison real quick. One of these players is Ryan Howard, and one isn’t, after two weeks of play.

Player A

AB: 43 R: 4 H:10 2B: 2 HR: 0 RBI: 4 BB: 11 SO: 10 AVG: 233 OBP: 382 SLG: 326 OPS: 707

Player B

AB: 45 R: 7 H: 10 2B: 2 HR: 2 RBI: 6 BB: 9 SO: 15 AVG: 222 OBP: 352 SLG: 400 OPS: 752


Player B is Ryan Howard. Player A is reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen. So let's give The Big Piece some room to breathe. He's getting on base and scoring runs. He's striking out and is a borderline atrocity at first but he's not going anywhere and there's no reason to not pull for the guy. He hit his second home run of the season today, a towering drive over the high fence in the deepest part of the ball park just left of center. We need more of this.

The Phils will face what should be a much tougher division opponent starting Monday. The Atlanta Braves are in town four a four game set. Let's hope it's more Marlins than Brewers.













Sunday, April 6, 2014

The Early Going






We’re six games into the season and if you’ve been following the Phillies in the early going you have to be borderline giddy about the way they have played through two series. Their record stands at 3-3 but today was the first bad game they played all season, an 8-3 sweep avoiding win by the Chicago Cubs. This entire post can be taken with a grain of salt considering that we’ve got 156 more of these ball games to go but several offensive question marks have looked better than expected in the very early going.

We’ll start with the goo- scratch that, outstanding. Chase Utley has come out firing on all cylinders proving for the millionth time that spring training numbers have little bearing on the regular season. He is 11-24 (.458) and he’s hitting for power, with 3 doubles and 2 home runs and is second in the NL in slugging percentage (.833). His homers in the first two games of the Cubs series proved to be enough margin for Roberto Hernandez and Cliff Lee to procure back-to-back wins at Wrigley. You know Ryno had to love watching a power-hitting 2nd baseman in Chicago.

Utley has been the star in the early going but the Phils offense has been surprisingly stellar. Even in the loss today they had chances inning after inning but just couldn’t come up with a big hit, going 1-15 with men in scoring position. As a team the Phillies are currently 3rd in the NL in batting average, 4th in slugging, and tied for 2nd in home runs.

Aside from being possibly the slowest man in the NL, Ryan Howard has looked decent at the plate.  He went 0-5 today to drop his average to .240 but if you only saw the box score then you wouldn’t realize this was not a bad day at the plate for the big man. You’d certainly notice that he didn’t K, but you wouldn’t know that he hit 3 balls to the fence on the fly and also was beaten by the shift when he sent a tracer into short right that was caught by the Cubs 2nd baseman.

On Wednesday night the Big Piece was seeing his 2nd left handed starter in a row.  Rangers’ southpaw Robbie Ross hung a slider in a tie ball game with Carlos Ruiz on first and Ryan Howard didn’t miss it (I wish you all could have seen my reaction to this home run. Let’s just say my daughter was no longer sleeping by the time Howard reached home plate). He blasted his first home run of the season off a “Welcome Prince” sign in right center field. It was Howard’s second extra base hit off a lefty in as many nights, he had six total last year. Of course, Howard did seem to be trying to set some sort of first week record when he Ked 10 times in the first four games, but he only has one strikeout in the last two games.

Humor me and have a look at Howard scoring from 1st on a double by Dom Brown. Is he okay?



Of course, it was not all roses for Ryne Sandberg’s ball club this week. The Rangers were able to take two out of three from the Phils despite being outplayed in all 3 games. The glaring question mark that is the Phils bullpen now just has a glow to it that gives you constant worry in the pit of your stomach. For instance, John Mayberry hit an 8th inning two run pinch-hit home run Friday afternoon to push the Phils lead from two to four. Before that ball landed, I was just ecstatic that Sandberg wasn’t going to have to go to Jonathan Papelbon in the 9th.

The Phils bullpen by committee blew a one run lead and then blew a tie ball game in the bottom of the 9th in the second game of the season. AJ Burnett pitched effectively for six innings but Jake Diekman gave up a run for his second consecutive outing. Then Mario Hollands made his major league debut in the 9th inning of a tie ball game and he walked the leadoff man. Guess what happened to the leadoff man?

If that didn’t feel bad enough Jonny Paps had to give the entire fan base the cross between a kick in the dick and gut punch in his first save opportunity of the year. Pap came in and was downright atrocious. He had a two run lead to work with courtesy of the Howard home run and a brilliant seven innings from Kyle Kendrick, but five might not have been enough. He faced seven batters and got one out.  He gave up four hits, which were all hit hard after he left his scorching 90 mile per hour fastball up in the zone. To make matters worse he walked the final two batters of the game. Walk off walks are not a good feeling. Thankfully he rebounded nicely to pitch a 1, 2, 3 9th to finish off Cliff Lee’s shut out on Saturday.

All in all, the Phils played pretty damn good ball this week and certainly played better than expected. The starting pitching was solid, save Cliff Lee opening day. We all knew the bullpen was going to be brutal and the first week certainly solidified those opinions. However, the offense, at least for the first week, has a different feel to it. It isn’t that dead fish handshake offense we’ve seen so much of the last two years. Even though they went down 4-0 in the first inning today, I didn’t have that “this game is over” feeling I would have had at almost any point in any of the last two seasons. Every one in the lineup seems and feels like they are capable of sparking or continuing rallies. Even John Mayberry has been dynamite off the bench. I can’t ask for much more than that.

Monday, March 31, 2014

Opposite Day - Phils Win Opener 14-10





Have you seen that Seinfeld episode where George realizes that any decision he's ever made has been wrong? From there he decides to do the opposite for every decision he has to make for the rest of the show. Because if every instinct he's ever had has been wrong, then the opposite, has to be right.

That's how opening day 2014 felt for the Phillies. Up was down! Black was white! The offense hit! Cliff Lee sucked! The bullpen was decent!

We'll pick up the action in the 2nd inning at Globe Life Park (Globe Life Park?!) in Arlington where the game took a decidedly sharp turn from what everybody expected out of the Phillies. Much maligned slugger Ryan Howard led the inning off with a walk. Innocent enough, and nice to see the big man show some patience in his first at bat of the year. After a 2 out Carlos Ruiz walk there were men on 1st and 2nd for rookie 3rd baseman Cody Asche, and the young man sent an opposite field double to left scoring Howard and giving the Phils their first run and first lead of the season.

Up next was Tony Gwynn Jr (maybe 1/100th the talent as his dad - which is still good enough to be in the big leagues) and he also walked. If you're keeping score that's 3 walks for the Phils in the 2nd inning, would love to see how many innings they accomplished that feat last year. Leadoff man Ben Revere then delivered an RBI single for the Phils to go up 2-0 and load the bases for James Calvin Rollins. On the second pitch of his at-bat a left handed hitting Rollins rocketed his 200th career home run, a grand slam, a few rows deep in right center field. 6-0 Phillies. They did a fantastic job of making the Rangers pay for granting them 3 free passes, not to mention dropping all 6 runs with 2 outs. That's a good way to start the day!

Where's Yu Darvish when you need him? Rangers' manager Ron Washington was thinking to himself.

So you're thinking Cliff Lee on the mound good night, game over, drive home safely. Not so fast Cliff said. Miraculously Lee gave up a double, a single, and a walk sandwiched around a ground out to load the bases with 1 out. Leonys Martin delivered an RBI single and up stepped Josh Wilson, a guy with .225 career batting average. Wilson came through with a bases clearing double to cut the Phils lead to 6-4. Gut punch. Doubled over.

Okay, Cliff will settle down and we can still pull this thing out. Not so fast Cliff said. After the Phillies failed to score with men on 2nd and 3rd and no outs in the top of the third (Ryan Howard out by a country mile at home after going on contact), Lee gave up a 3 run bomb to Alex Rios. 7-6 Rangers and all the air was officially out of the 6 run inning balloon.

Astoundingly, there was no quit in the Phillies on one of the warmer opening days in recent memory. Chase Utley found himself up with Ben Revere in scoring position thanks to Benny and his jets 1st steal of the year. Like you've seen him do countless times before, Chase came up with a clutch RBI single to tie the game at 7. 

Breathin' heavy here top of the 4th on the highway between Fort Worth and Dallas.

By the time the top of the 5th came around the Phillies had knocked out Texas' starter Tanner Scheppers (what a name), but their hit parade was far from over. With two men on Ryne Sandberg made his first in game managerial decision of the season and pinch hit right handed batter John Mayberry for lefty Tony Gwynn Jr. The Rangers' left hander Pedro Figueroa couldn't have been too happy with the move as Mayberry smoked a 2 run double into the gap to give the Phils a 9-7 lead. Sandberg 1 - Ron Washington - 0.

Cliff managed to claw his way through the 5th inning giving up 2 more hits and 1 more run. His line for the day 5 IP 11 H 8 R 8 ER 1 BB 1 K - 14.40 ERA. Cliff got the W with that crap line because he exited with a 9-8 lead. He better keep any run support comments to himself until Memorial Day.

There was no quit in the Phils bats today as Texas went through 5 pitchers and only 1 kept his ERA at 0.00 on the season. Highlights from the second half of the game included a low and inside pitch Marlon Byrd sent for a ride over the left field fence. Ben Revere racking up his 2nd steal, 3rd hit, and 3rd RBI of the game. For the cherry on top, Cody Asche sent a tracer deep down the line in right for his 3rd hit of the game and 1st home run of the season. 


Tell me how you feel about the call from Tom McCarthy on the Asche home run, this is case in point for me as to why I can't stand McCarthy. What a lackadaisical call to an exciting moment in the game. Video courtesy of yours truly.





When it came to the bullpen, all wasn't good but Antonio Bastardo and Jonathan Papelbon both pitched effectively. Jake Diekman had a quick and easy 6th inning but struggled immediately in the 7th before being pulled. BJ Rosenberg induced a no out bases loaded double play but then couldn't find the strike zone after that. The bullpen will be patch work, guaranteed, but if Bastardo and Pap are effective the Phils can win ball games. 

If Cliff Lee has any more starts like that we're on a Roy Halladay watch. Cliff should not be capable of that kind of catastrophe, let's hope its an anomaly.

Undoubtedly this will be one of the more exciting games this season so soak it in now folks. 

Relax kid, we got 161 of these to go.



Thursday, March 27, 2014

2014 Season Preview




On Monday afternoon all of the answers to our questions about this Phillies team can finally start to formulate. Let’s be honest with ourselves, it doesn’t look good. There’s always hope and anticipation at the beginning of a season but there’s probably the least amount of both in a decade. This Phillies team has pinned so much of their hope on guys who are just plain old.

I know this angle has been looked at before by me, but it bears repeating. Let’s take a look around the diamond and give a quick breakdown of the projected starters for this outdated squad. I’ll list each player and the amount of worry about their performance this season in parentheses. 1 being no worry and 10 being Ryan Howard.

Catcher (3) – Carlos Ruiz

Chooch turned 35 in January and is coming off an up and down season that was more up as the season went along. He was suspended for 50 games at the beginning of last year for using adderall, but hey! This year Chooch has a legit prescription and maybe this will help him regain his All-Star caliber play from 2012. Pitchers seem to love him and he plays solid defense. Chooch is a plus catcher in this league and should bring plenty to the plate from that position.


1st Base (10) – Ryan Howard

The Big Piece turned 34 last November. Gone are the days of Howard being a feared slugger who can impact the way pitchers pitch to the rest of the lineup, let alone himself. He hasn’t played close to a full season since 2011 and that was his worst statistical season to that point. He’s going to make $25 million this season and all recent evidence suggests platooning him against left handed pitching would benefit all involved. Newsflash! You don’t want to platoon guys you’re paying $25 million a year! The Phillies need Howard more than they’ve ever needed him but there are shadows of doubt everywhere in his game. The glimmer of hope fans can cling to is that he is probably the healthiest he has been since the beginning of the 2011 season. Let’s pray to Richie Ashburn and Harry Kalas that that can translate into more than 30 home runs for the once great Piece.

2nd Base (6) – Chase Utley

The Man, as Kalas liked to call him, turned 35 in December.  Lackluster spring aside, I can’t be too worried about Chase Utley if he’s healthy. Of course, that’s been a massive if the last few years, save last year. Utley has played a normal amount of spring games and while he is hitting under .200 with one extra base hit, which I heard was a flare down the left field line, he has been healthy by all accounts. That’s all that really matters when it comes to Utley as far as I’m concerned. 2nd base is not usually a spot that generates a lot of offense and if Chase can manage to play 140+ games I can’t see him having a season that isn’t better than 75% of NL 2nd baseman. Is that a double negative? Who cares..


3rd Base (7) – Cody Asche

I know, I know, you wanted to see an infield made up of all guys born in the 70s. Amazingly for the Phillies, they won’t even have one guy start opening day in the infield that was born in the 80s as Asche was born in June of 1990.  Asche is by far the least proven starter on this team but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He played in 50 games last year and he’s not exactly the next Scott Rolen but he also looked like he belonged. He gets a 7 on the worry-meter simply because he’s never played a full major league season. Hopefully he can inject some positive youthful exuberance to this team of grizzled veterans.

Short Stop (8) – Jimmy Rollins

JRoll turned 35 this past November and he’s coming off back-to-back seasons of hitting .250. In 2012 he at least showed some pop with 23 home runs. 2013 was just a dismal season at the plate for Rollins. As far as seasons when he played every day, he set career lows in hits (151), home runs (6), RBI (39), and stolen bases (22). There’s also the attitude he has (I’m not calling it a problem) and how it seems to clash with Ryne Sandberg. Jimmy plays baseball his way and it’s worked way more than it hasn’t over the past 1952 games. Since the media driven dust up between player and manager a few weeks back, Jimmy has shown some good signs at the plate. Hopefully that can transfer into the season. Also, it’s naïve but I’m going to continue to hope that he won’t pop up the 2nd pitch of an at bat more than once a week.


Left Field (3) – Dom Brown

Finally, a player born in the 80s. Dom Brown is 26 years old and should be entering the prime of his career. Dom had a breakout season last year and had just about the most impressive two week stretch of any player in Phillies history, hitting something like 10 home runs in 12 games. He led the Phils in homers (27) and RBI (83) and was a bit nicked up toward the end of the season or those numbers would have been even stronger. He still needs to work on his defense a bit, but it’s light years better than when he broke into the league and refused to catch a fly ball without extending his arm as far away from his body as he could. Dom is a major league ball player and could possibly be the best hitter on the team this year.

Center Field (3) – Ben Revere

Benny and his jets will turn 26 in a month and he should be coming into this season with the most confidence of any position player. Revere’s broken foot derailed the Phillies season at the All-Star Break. He was humming along at over a .400 clip from the beginning of May until the injury in early July. The Phils were also playing their best ball and scoring runs at their best clip since the 2010 season for the month before the break. Revere could prove to be key as the leadoff man who can get on base and cause distractions for pitchers when trying to get Utley and Howard out. That’s the plan anyway. His drawbacks are having -1 rank of power and a 1 rank for arm on a 1-10 scale. If he gets on base and steals a ton of bags while running down everything he can in the outfield he can mollify those negatives.


Right Field (4) – Marlon Byrd

The 36 year old former Phillie (he hasn’t played for the Phils in 10 years!) is coming off his best statistical season and has had a good stroke this spring. He should be a solid upgrade over the Delmon Young / not Nate Scheirholtz fiasco last year. His position in the batting order, 5th, right behind Ryan Howard, has been a void since Jayson Werth left town. The Big Piece could use all the production Byrd can give the Phils to make sure he can get a fastball to hit once and a while. Howard is a lot like Pedro Cerrano when it comes to breaking balls and fastballs. Byrd is a solid defender and other than that you just have to hope he can re-create whatever magic he had last year with the Pirates. I can say I’m officially on board with this Byrd signing as the season is about to start. I had my doubts at the face value of it when the news first broke, but at 2 years $16 million it’s a low-medium risk with possibly high reward. (Giving Ruben the benefit  of the doubt alert.)

It’s a shaky group to put it bluntly. And we haven’t even touched on the bullpen. Who’s ready to talk pitching? In the interest of everyone, I’m not going to go quite as in depth on this group but I’ll make a few shallow, fairly  obvious observations.

Starting Pitchers (4) – Cliff Lee, AJ Burnett, Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez, (Cole Hamels)

If Hamels wasn’t in parentheses for having somewhat mysterious shoulder issues the worry meter would be at a 2 for this group collectively. It’s by far the strongest area of the team, and was certainly bolstered by the 1 year contract bestowed upon AJ Burnett. All reports have Cliff Lee as dazzling during the spring and the Phils will certainly need that to be the case if Hamels is unlikely to make a start in April. Sanberg has decided to go with a 4-man rotation until mid-April due to more off days than usual in the early going.


The key for Hernandez and Kendrick will be keeping the ball down in the zone. They are ground ball pitchers that can get hurt when they leave the ball up. We don’t need Kendrick getting whiplash watching balls rocket out of hitter friendly Citizen’s Bank Park. Other than that, you have to expect this group of guys to be better this year considering this list I’m about to share with you.


2013 Philadelphia Phillies starting pitchers:

Cole Hamels - 33 starts
Cliff Lee - 31 starts
Kyle Kendrick - 30 starts
Jonathan Pettibone - 18 starts
John Lannan - 14 starts
Roy Halladay - 13 starts (6.82 ERA)
Tyler Cloyd - 11 starts
Ethan Martin - 8 starts
Zach Miner - 3 starts
Raul Valdes - 1 start

Yikes, got pretty ugly quickly there. So anyway, they should have a pretty decent shot at having better starting pitching this year if Hamels only misses April. And according to Cole he feels “great”.

Bullpen (9) – Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, Antonio Bastardo and a whole lotta eeeessshhh

How confident do you feel about the 3 names I actually listed? Well, the rest of them, Justin De Fratus, Jake Diekman, Phillippe Aumont, I could go on but I won’t, aren’t much to look at either. The Phils bullpen was the worst in the Majors last year and while it wasn’t the only reason they stunk up the joint, it was a serious contributing factor. Amaro brought in Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez from Cuba who proved he wasn’t going to make the team before getting hurt. There isn’t much else he did to improve upon a disastrous group from last year so I’d say the bullpen is right up there with the Utley/Howard/Rollins triumvirate as far as worry. Hopefully Jonathan “my velocity is down because I can’t get pumped up to play for this team” Paplebon won’t be a huge jackass distraction, but who are we kidding?

So Vegas has set the over / under on Phillies wins this season at a very meek 76. As sad as it is to say, I think the the best this Phillies team could possibly muster is a break even of 81 wins. That's assuming more goes right than wrong. I'd put them making the playoffs at about 12 to 1 considering the Braves and Nats will most assuredly be better than them. I'd love to be proven wrong on these predictions but after being a complete homer with my predictions last year I'm trying to be more of a realist this season.

Well folks, that’s your 2014 Phillies season preview. It’s not quite bleak, but it’s close.

Remember up with hope, down with dope!














Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Sandberg Setting a Tone





It’s high time that I weighed in on what I consider to be the fairly ridiculous Jimmy Rollins situation. As most of you who read this blog probably already know there is what the media describes as friction between the old standby Jimmy Rollins and the new regime that is Ryne Sandberg.

At the beginning of last week Jimmy was quoted saying something along the lines of “who cares” when asked about how putrid the Phillies offense had been during the first two weeks of spring games.

Guess who cared? The guy who decides whether Jimmy plays every day or not, that’s who. Ryno decided to sit Jimmy the next three days straight after those comments.  Sandberg also commented, “no comment” when asked about Jimmy’s attitude and leadership toward the ballclub. That was comment enough.

Cue the local media drumming this thing up way out of proportion. Let’s face it, the Eagles are in an offseason, the Sixers have lost 21 straight and counting (probably 22 by the time people read this), and the Flyers have their rabid fan base that isn't big enough to sell air time or generate page views. They need to talk about something, so why not make it a negative story about the Phillies?

Next came the national stories about how the Phillies seem to be shopping Jimmy Rollins. A story like that doesn’t surprise me given how the Phillies operate. They always want to look like the bad guy in any situation. Job well done.

Jimmy has made it clear for a while now that he doesn’t have any interest in being traded. He’s sixty-one hits away from breaking Mike Schmidt’s franchise record, and it’s borderline refreshing to hear his honesty about wanting to break that record.  I like the pride that he’s showing there, selfish or not. He’s been a Phillie his entire career and he has full veto power over any trade. He also has to get to 434 at bats for the $11 million option in his contract to vest next season. It's safe to assume he's staying put for the time being.

The bottom line is that these games don’t matter. Sure it’d be nice if the Phillies weren’t setting offensive futility records this spring, but whether or not they have a good season we’re not going to look back on the spring and say that caused it.

It’s no secret that Rollins isn’t Chase Utley when it comes to work ethic (who is?), but his work ethic shouldn’t be in question. He doesn’t show up late. There’s no reports of him not interacting well with teammates. He might not hustle on balls he rolls over to 2nd base, but is it really that big a deal? It’s not a big deal when Jimmy is churning out 180+ hit seasons while bashing the ball out of the ballpark way more than a person his size should be able to. Of course, it is an issue when he’s coming off back-to-back .250 seasons where he continues to become less and less of an asset at the plate.

I get what Sandberg is doing. The beef on Charlie Manuel at the end was that he was not hard enough on the aging superstars that made up the Phillies roster. Sandberg was brought in to change the attitude of the ballclub and see if he couldn’t teach some of these old dogs new tricks.  So there will be some tough love he has to show to guys who aren’t adhering to his way of doing things. We saw that last week.

What I don’t get is the timing of it, or the way he has let it play out in the media. Maybe it was a rookie manager not realizing what he was doing, or maybe he knew exactly what he was doing and wanted to get the fans and the media on Jimmy early. 

We all know Jimmy Rollins and how he operates. We know for certain there’s going to be plenty of opportunity for Sandberg to make an example of Rollins, so why do it before things are even getting started? Why cause friction and a perceived riff before anything has truly happened? Set a tone early is the answer some of you might say, but spring training is too early for this for me. Let’s wait until Rollins pops up the first pitch of an bat 5 times in the first two weeks and makes it half way down the line. Let’s wait until the Phillies come out flatter than a leftover beer from a keg party. I don’t need this kind of turmoil this early.

Maybe you’re fed up with Jimmy Rollins, but he’s the best we have and it’s not close, so you might as well root for Jimmy Rollins.